Cashew Market: India’s Import Surge Meets Softer Kernel Exports

India’s cashew market is in a mixed but broadly stable phase: raw nut imports are up sharply in early 2026, while kernel exports and prices are edging lower amid steady domestic demand and a firmer rupee. India has increased raw cashew procurement despite softer export performance. In the first half of 2026, imports rose nearly 8% year on year, signalling confidence among processors and sustained kernel offtake in the domestic market. Export volumes, by contrast, declined by almost 10%, and average export prices eased. Destination demand is uneven, with traditional premium markets in the Middle East, Europe and Japan buying less, partly offset by growth into the Netherlands and neighbouring South Asian countries. Overall, the balance of ample raw nut availability, cautious international buyers and stable internal consumption is keeping kernel prices in a narrow range.

Prices

Domestic Indian kernel prices are broadly stable with a slightly firmer undertone, reflecting steady local demand and comfortable raw nut supplies. Recent offers for Indian non-organic W320 kernels around New Delhi are clustered near EUR 6.5–6.7/kg FCA equivalent after conversion from USD, while organic grades command a clear premium. Vietnamese W320 offers sit at a comparable level, signalling a relatively balanced global kernel market with limited arbitrage opportunities between major origins.

Despite softer average export unit values (down from about USD 8,347/t to USD 7,802/t), internal kernel prices have not corrected aggressively. This suggests that processors are leaning more on the resilient domestic retail and snack sector, while trimming export price expectations to remain competitive in a more selective overseas demand environment.

Supply & Demand

India imported 575,804 metric tons of raw cashew nuts in the first half of 2026, a 7.8% increase from 534,330 tons in the same period of 2025. The total import bill reached around USD 923 million, with the average purchase price broadly flat at roughly USD 1,603/t. This combination of higher volumes and stable prices points to both good raw nut availability in key African origins and robust procurement appetite among Indian processors.

Tanzania remains the leading supplier, shipping 213,389 tons (about USD 361 million), underscoring its central role in India’s supply chain. Nigeria’s shipments jumped 31.4% to 141,738 tons, and Ghana supplied 90,374 tons, while Mozambique nearly doubled exports to 35,486 tons. By contrast, Togo’s deliveries collapsed to 11,245 tons from 70,884 tons, and imports from Côte d’Ivoire fell 55.5% to 19,097 tons due to stronger domestic processing incentives and tighter exportable surpluses there.

On the demand side, India’s kernel exports declined 9.5% to 14,851 tons in the first half of 2026, with earnings of about USD 115.9 million. The drop in both volume and average export price signals a more competitive and price‑sensitive international market. Shipments to the UAE and Japan fell notably, and volumes to Spain, Kuwait and Qatar also contracted. Some support came from higher purchases by the Netherlands, as well as strong percentage growth into Nepal and Bangladesh, though these smaller destinations cannot fully compensate for softer demand from core premium buyers.

Domestic kernel demand, however, stayed steady, cushioning processors from the export slowdown. The appreciating Indian rupee is easing landed raw nut costs for importers, partly offsetting margin pressures from lower export prices. Processors are watching upcoming festive‑season demand closely, as stronger festival buying could tighten the domestic balance later in the year even if exports remain subdued.

Fundamentals & Margins

The combination of higher raw nut imports and weaker kernel exports is putting the focus on processing margins. With the average raw nut import price stable near USD 1,603/t and export prices down year on year, gross crush margins are narrower than in the previous season. Nevertheless, steady domestic kernel prices indicate that the internal market is absorbing a significant share of output without requiring deep discounts.

Origin diversification is another key fundamental trend. Increased buying from Nigeria, Ghana, Mozambique and Guinea is partially offsetting reduced reliance on Togo and Côte d’Ivoire. This spreads supply risk but may also introduce quality variability and logistics complexity. The rupee’s appreciation offers some relief, lowering the local‑currency cost of imported raw nuts, yet also slightly eroding export competitiveness where contracts are denominated in USD or EUR.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

In the near term, the market is likely to remain range‑bound, shaped by comfortable raw nut availability, cautious global kernel demand and event‑driven domestic consumption. Weather conditions in key African origins are currently not the main driver; instead, trade flows and currency moves dominate. The principal risk skew is that festive‑season demand in India and any recovery in Middle Eastern or European snack demand could tighten kernel supply later in the year.

• Buyers: Use the current stable price window to secure staggered coverage for Q4, focusing on benchmark grades like W320 and W240. Avoid over‑coverage given still‑soft export indicators, but consider extending slightly if you are heavily exposed to festive‑season demand.
• Processors: Maintain disciplined raw nut procurement, prioritising origins with reliable quality such as Tanzania and Ghana, while closely monitoring currency moves. Given narrower export margins, emphasise domestic channels and value‑added products to preserve profitability.
• Traders: Look for relative value between origins and grades rather than a strong directional bet on the complex. Spreads between organic and conventional kernels, and between whole and pieces, offer selective opportunities as demand patterns diverge by segment.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)