Heatwave in the Netherlands Meets Steady Cashew Prices
Cashew kernel prices in the Netherlands remain stable as a brief heatwave lifts snack demand, while strong European imports and steady global supply keep the market sideways.
Prices
In Dordrecht, FCA prices on 13 August 2026 are unchanged versus the previous quote: SWP conventional at about EUR 3.10/kg, SWP organic at about EUR 4.65/kg, and LWP organic at about EUR 5.00/kg. All three grades have been flat since at least late July, indicating a pause after modest gains earlier in the season.
European import demand for cashew nuts continues to grow, but recent years have seen a softening of average import prices as volumes increased faster than value. This environment aligns with the current Dutch pattern of stable kernel prices despite firm retail demand.
Supply & Demand
European cashew imports reached about 268,000 tonnes in 2024 and are expected to grow by roughly 4–6% per year in the coming five years, underscoring strong structural demand. Vietnam and India remain the dominant kernel suppliers, while West African origins, especially Côte d’Ivoire, are gradually expanding direct exports to Europe.
On the supply side, higher raw cashew nut (RCN) and logistics costs have recently squeezed processor margins in India, while African RCN exporters have tightened early‑season shipments and shifted more contracts to FOB terms, increasing landed costs for Asian processors. Despite these pressures, global kernel trade remains well supplied, and European buyers report ample availability across major grades.
Weather & Short‑Term Demand (Netherlands)
Dordrecht and the wider South Holland region are currently under a yellow warning for extreme high temperatures, with a heatwave peak around 35°C on 14 August, followed by thunderstorms and a cooling trend toward 23°C by 16 August. Such brief hot spells typically support consumption of ready‑to‑eat snacks, including cashews, via retail and impulse channels.
However, the forecast cooling early next week and the absence of weather‑related disruptions to logistics in the Netherlands suggest only a minor, temporary uplift in local demand. Overall, near‑term fundamentals for Dutch cashew prices remain more driven by import cost levels and European demand than by local weather.
Fundamentals & Trade Flows
India’s cashew sector has faced rising RCN, freight and packaging costs, reinforcing a shift toward prioritising its large domestic market over exports and eroding price competitiveness versus Vietnam and emerging African processors. This has encouraged some European buyers, including in the Netherlands, to diversify sourcing toward Vietnam and selected African origins.
At the same time, European buyers remain highly price‑sensitive: cashews are among the more expensive nuts, and food processors can partially substitute cheaper nuts in mixes when cashew prices spike. This substitution risk caps the upside for Dutch import prices in the absence of a major supply shock. Current stability in Dordrecht FCA prices is consistent with globally range‑bound kernel quotations.
Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)
- Buyers (roasters, packers in NL): Use the current flat market to cover near‑term needs, but avoid aggressive forward cover; sideways global fundamentals and stable FCA prices do not justify paying up.
- Sellers (importers, distributors): Maintain offer levels for Dutch FCA positions; only test slightly higher prices where organic and speciality grades face tight spot availability, but expect resistance from price‑sensitive buyers.
- Risk focus: Watch for any sudden tightening in Asian kernel offers linked to RCN cost spikes or freight disruptions; until such signals appear, a narrow sideways range in the Netherlands is the base case.
3‑Day Price Direction – Netherlands (FCA Dordrecht)
- SWP conventional: EUR 3.10/kg – expected sideways.
- SWP organic: EUR 4.65/kg – expected sideways to slightly firm on niche demand.
- LWP organic: EUR 5.00/kg – expected sideways with good availability.