Raisin Prices Ease in Europe While China Harvest Enters Key Phase

Raisin prices are mixed but overall mildly soft, with Chinese sultanas easing in Europe, Turkish offers broadly steady and Indian grades slightly firmer on monsoon-related supply discipline. For CN-linked flows and CN-origin supply, the immediate price environment is stable-to-soft, with no acute weather threat in key Chinese grape regions. European buyers are currently seeing competitive CN sultana offers on FCA Hamburg and Dordrecht, undercutting Turkish and Chilean alternatives. At origin, India is entering its early seasonal tightening phase with a mildly bullish undertone, while Turkey’s new seedless grape harvest is underway, supporting expectations for adequate sultana availability. In China, the main grape harvest in Xinjiang is progressing smoothly under generally favourable late-summer conditions, and recent trade data point to structurally lower Chinese raisin imports as domestic supply and higher global prices curb buying interest.

Prices

• CN sultanas, RTU, FCA Hamburg: ~EUR 1.74/kg, down about 8% from mid‑August, keeping CN origin as the cheapest mainstream baking-quality sultana option in Europe.
• TR sultanas, type 9, grade A, FOB Malatya: ~EUR 2.20/kg, flat over the last three weeks and holding a premium over CN product.
• IN golden raisins, AA, FOB/FCA New Delhi: around EUR 2.50–2.65/kg, modestly firmer versus late August, in line with reports of a mildly bullish Indian market.
• CN sultanas, FCA Dordrecht: around EUR 2.22/kg for warehouse stock in the Netherlands, steady and still competitive against Chilean flame jumbos (~EUR 2.52/kg equivalent).
• Global reference range: A leading broker quotes mixed-origin raisins broadly at EUR 1.47–2.13/kg (FOB/CFR/CIF) as at early September 2026, placing current CN export offers towards the lower half of the global spectrum.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows (Focus: CN)

• China harvest: Grape harvest activity is currently strong in Xinjiang, with wine grape picking in full swing in Heshuo County and neighbouring areas, supported by suitable late-summer weather and robust processing capacity. While these reports focus on wine grapes, they confirm generally favourable conditions for grape quality in the broader region supplying both wine and raisins.
• Chinese import balance: Latest customs-based analysis shows China’s sultana/raisin imports have fallen sharply (around 56% over the last TTM period), as domestic supply substitutes for imports amid weaker local demand and higher world prices. This keeps external competition for EU‑destined CN raisins limited.
• Turkey: The Turkish Trade Ministry confirms that harvest and export-permit dates for seedless grapes in key Manisa districts were set for mid‑August 2026, implying that the new sultana drying and export season is now fully underway. Adequate fresh grape availability underpins the current stability of Turkish FOB and CIF raisin prices.
• India: Indian raisin prices are described as slightly firmer, particularly for golden grades, as monsoon humidity in Maharashtra slows pre‑harvest operations and keeps supply pipelines disciplined. Buyers in Europe and the Middle East are beginning to price forward needs for Q4 and Ramadan, lending a floor to Indian quotes.
• Global demand: A broker overview for raisins suggests indicative export offers at USD 1,600–2,300/MT FOB/CFR/CIF (~EUR 1.47–2.13/kg), with India, Iran, Turkey and Afghanistan as key origins for confectionery, cereal and snack segments. Demand from bakery and cereal users is steady but not aggressive, favouring price competition among origins.

Weather Outlook – Key CN Grape Regions (Next 7 Days)

For CN-linked raisin supply, the most relevant factor is weather in Xinjiang’s main grape belts (including Turpan and surrounding prefectures), where grapes destined for both wine and drying are in or near harvest.

• Xinjiang (Turpan / Heshuo corridors): Local media report active harvest under generally dry, sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with processing plants operating at full capacity. Over the coming week, no major adverse event (such as prolonged rain or frost) is flagged, suggesting low immediate weather risk to grape quality for drying.
• India (Nashik/Sangli context for comparison): Monsoon conditions remain humid but not extreme, supporting the narrative of a slow but steady pipeline rather than weather damage.
• Turkey (Manisa region): With the official seedless grape harvest window having opened in August, current early‑September conditions are seasonally normal and do not indicate disruptive weather for sultana production.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• CN pricing power: The recent softening of CN sultana prices into Hamburg reflects ample availability of 2025/26 crop and a need to remain competitive against Turkish and Indian origins, especially as global export prices rose last season.
• Stock levels: Earlier global crop updates pointed to limited carry‑over stocks for Chinese raisins after slow domestic demand, leaving room for some price support if export interest strengthens later in the season. For now, however, cautious international buying keeps the tone balanced to slightly soft.
• India’s firm undertone: Monsoon‑related logistical constraints are enough to tighten near‑term Indian supply without creating a shortage, explaining why golden grades are edging higher while black and brown types remain flat.
• Turkey as benchmark origin: With new‑crop seedless grapes flowing and export controls aligned with the harvest calendar, Turkey continues to set a reference floor for premium sultana qualities. Stable Turkish quotes effectively cap upside for CN export prices in the short term, unless CN quality differentials widen significantly.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Regional View (CN Focus)

Trading Recommendations (Short Term)

• Buyers in EU & MENA: Consider layering in CN sultanas for standard bakery and cereal applications while FCA Hamburg and Dordrecht levels remain at a clear discount to Turkish FOB prices. Price risk in the next week appears skewed mildly to the upside from these depressed CN levels.
• Blenders & packers: Use CN origin to build a low‑cost base and selectively blend with Turkish or Indian golden raisins where colour and berry size premiums are required. This can hedge against potential Indian firmness if monsoon‑related delays extend.
• Origin sellers (CN): With import demand into China soft and global prices still elevated versus pre‑2023 levels, maintaining competitive export offers now can help secure market share before Turkey’s full new‑crop volumes hit export channels in volume.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR, CN-Linked Markets)

• Hamburg (CN sultanas, FCA): Bias stable to slightly firmer. Recent softness appears largely priced in; any incremental European interest into early next week could nudge offers up by EUR 0.02–0.04/kg.
• Dordrecht (CN and mixed origins, FCA): Expect sideways trade as warehouse stocks are adequate and buyers remain selective. Premiums for Chilean flame jumbos should hold near current levels versus CN sultanas.
• Malatya (TR sultanas, FOB): Outlook flat for the next 3 days. New‑crop flow and the absence of fresh weather news argue for stable offers in the EUR 2.15–2.25/kg band.