Raisin Prices Hold Steady as New-Crop Signals Emerge from Key Origins

Raisin prices into Northwest Europe are broadly steady at the start of September, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves across Afghan feed, Chilean flame, Turkish sultanas and Chinese grades. Nearby physical supply looks comfortable, but early signals from vineyards in Afghanistan, Chile and China, plus currency and logistics noise in Türkiye, argue for selective forward cover rather than outright bullishness. After several weeks of sideways trading, the raisin complex is starting the new marketing year with a relatively balanced tone. Afghan feed‑grade material into the EU is flat, while Chilean flame and Chinese sultanas also show no fresh upward momentum. Turkish sultanas retain a premium, supported by demand for standardised No. 9 RTU grades and tighter high‑quality supply. In the background, a larger grape harvest in western Afghanistan, weather risks in Chile under El Niño and hot, mostly dry conditions in Turpan, China, will shape export availability through Q4 2026. Nearby buyers can still find competitive offers, but spreads between low‑ and high‑grade origins are likely to widen.

Prices

All price indications below are converted to EUR/kg (approx. 1 EUR = 1.10 USD for reference) and refer to prompt/nearby positions.

• Afghan feed raisins remain the cheapest mainstream option into the EU, trading at a discount of ~0.30–1.00 EUR/kg versus Chilean, Chinese and Turkish grades.
• Turkish sultanas maintain the clear premium in the EU prompt market, reflecting brand, quality and tighter high‑grade availability.
• Inter‑origin spreads are wide but stable week‑on‑week, suggesting neither acute shortage nor aggressive discounting.

Supply & Demand Drivers (AF, CL, CN, TR)

Afghanistan (AF)

In Herat, one of Afghanistan’s core grape and raisin regions, officials report a roughly 10% increase in grape harvest this year versus last, pointing to better raw material availability for raisin drying and feed‑grade product. This aligns with broader assessments that perennial fruit output has been recovering with improved management and acreage in recent years.

Domestic food insecurity remains severe and local demand for low‑grade fruit is strong, but hard currency needs and limited storage capacity mean exporters are likely to continue pushing volumes of feed‑grade raisins into regional and EU markets. This helps cap prices on Afghan feed grades despite slightly better crop volumes.

Chile (CL)

In central Chile, agricultural institutes warn that El Niño is raising the risk of intense rainfall events and cooler, unstable conditions during flowering for fruit crops, including grapes. While these concerns are mainly forward‑looking for the coming spring, they increase uncertainty around the 2027 exportable raisin supply.

For the current export window, physical availability of flame raisins remains adequate, and no fresh disruptions have been reported in the last few days. With international buyers cautious and freight rates off their peaks, Chilean flame jumbo in Europe is holding near the middle of the origin price range, with no clear catalyst for a short‑term spike.

China (CN)

China’s main raisin hub around Turpan, Xinjiang, dominates national production and is a key supplier of green and standard sultana raisins to world markets. Late August weather monitoring for Turpan shows typical very hot and mostly dry conditions, with no excessive rainfall events reported that could significantly disrupt sun‑drying so far.

Short‑term, this supports good drying conditions and stable supply of Chinese sultanas. Domestic fruit demand remains robust but not strong enough to materially tighten export availability in the next few weeks, keeping EU prices flat and competitive versus Türkiye.

Türkiye (TR)

Türkiye remains the reference origin for sultanas, with Malatya and Aegean regions central to exports. While recent weeks have brought normal to slightly variable late‑summer weather, no major new shock has emerged in the past three days that would materially alter 2026/27 raisin availability.

Earlier in the season, industry commentary noted that elevated opening prices had depressed export volumes and forced a gradual softening in offers. Current flat prices for standard Type 9/10 sultanas suggest that this correction phase is now largely reflected in EU FCA levels, with buyers focused on execution rather than new long‑term coverage.

Weather Outlook – Next 7–10 Days (Key Impacts)

• Afghanistan (AF – Herat and western belt): Forecasts point to seasonally warm, dry late‑summer conditions, favourable for drying and reducing spoilage risk on grapes already on racks. No large‑scale rainfall systems are indicated in the immediate term.
• Chile (CL – central valleys): Late‑winter/early‑spring systems tied to El Niño may bring episodes of rain and cooler temperatures in the coming 1–2 weeks, increasing flowering and disease risk for the new crop but with limited effect on current export stocks.
• China (CN – Turpan/Xinjiang): Continued hot, predominantly dry conditions support good drying; isolated showers cannot be excluded but no prolonged wet spell is currently flagged in the most recent national ag‑weather updates.
• Türkiye (TR – Malatya & Aegean): Typical late‑summer warmth with localised thunderstorms is expected; risk of quality downgrades from rain exists but probability of a region‑wide damaging event in the coming week appears low based on available forecasts.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

• Supply: A larger grape crop in Herat and broadly normal conditions in Turpan underpin comfortable raw material availability from AF and CN in the near term. Chile and Türkiye face more uncertainty further out due to El Niño‑linked rainfall patterns and previous pricing‑related export slowdowns.
• Demand: EU snack and bakery demand is steady but price‑sensitive. Buyers are favouring cheaper origins (AF, CN) for feed and industrial uses, while paying up for Turkish and Chilean product in branded and premium segments.
• Competition: Strong availability of other dried fruits (notably dates) at only modestly higher prices in Türkiye and the Middle East slightly caps upside for raisins in blended mixes.
• Macro & logistics: Freight rates remain lower than 2024 peaks, with sufficient container capacity out of Asia and the Black Sea, helping to keep CIF quotes contained despite local currency volatility in Türkiye.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Bias (AF, CL, CN, TR)

Trading recommendations (short term)

• European buyers (industry & packers): Use current stability to secure 2–3 months of cover in Afghan feed and Chinese sultanas; risk/reward favours locking in discounts versus Turkish origin while spreads remain wide.
• Premium segment buyers: Stagger purchases of Turkish and Chilean raisins; avoid heavy front‑loading until there is more clarity on El Niño impacts in Chile and any late‑season weather events in Türkiye.
• Origin sellers (AF, CN): Consider modestly firmer offers for higher‑quality lots, but maintain competitive pricing on lower grades to defend market share against Turkish standard product.

3‑day directional outlook (spot into EU, EUR/kg)

• Afghanistan (AF feed, brown, FCA NL ≈ 1.94 EUR/kg): Bias: Stable – Ample supply and strong export push keep prices flat over the next three days.
• Chile (CL flame jumbo, FCA NL ≈ 2.52 EUR/kg): Bias: Stable – No fresh supply shock; El Niño concerns are forward‑looking, not yet affecting nearby offers.
• China (CN sultanas No. 9 AA, FCA NL ≈ 2.22 EUR/kg): Bias: Stable to slightly firmer – Good drying weather and steady export interest could allow a small upward adjustment if buyers increase coverage.
• Türkiye (TR sultanas No. 9 RTU, FCA NL ≈ 2.92 EUR/kg): Bias: Stable – Market has largely priced in earlier corrections; in the very near term, sideways trading is most likely barring a sudden weather event.