Raisins market on hold as Turkish base price disappoints

TARIS’s long‑awaited 80 TL/kg advance price has reset expectations lower for Turkish raisins, but with TMO still silent and harvesting ongoing in Manisa, export and price direction remain highly uncertain. The new season in Turkey’s Sultana heartland is underway, with harvest progressing in Manisa and first drying lots entering the pipeline. TARIS has announced a flat 80 TL/kg preliminary purchasing price for the 2026/27 season, regardless of quality, and will start physical purchases from 10 September. However, the key benchmark will be TMO’s intervention price, which has not yet been released. Export activity is expected to accelerate from the second week of September, but both weather and early export volumes will be crucial in determining whether today’s nominally weaker producer price translates into sustained pressure on export offers.

Prices

Turkish Sultana export offers are currently broadly stable in euro terms despite the lower‑than‑hoped TRY base. Standard Turkish Sultanas type 9 grade A from Malatya are indicated around EUR 2.20/kg FOB, with type 8 at about EUR 2.15/kg and finer type 10 at roughly EUR 2.40/kg. Ready‑to‑use Sultanas type 9 CIF are quoted near EUR 2.13/kg. Organic Sultanas type 9 grade A remain at a clear premium, around EUR 3.10/kg FOB.

In Europe, Turkish Sultanas no.9 RTU ex‑Dordrecht trade near EUR 2.92/kg FCA, while Chinese Sultanas std no.9 grade AA hover around EUR 2.22/kg FCA. Indian raisins show a mixed picture, with golden AA at roughly EUR 2.55/kg FOB New Delhi and black and brown AA grades closer to EUR 1.90–2.00/kg. Overall, the flat line in euro offers over recent weeks underscores that the newly announced 80 TL/kg remains a local producer reference rather than an immediate downward shock to export prices.

Supply & Demand

Harvesting in Manisa, the core production region for Turkish seedless raisins, is ongoing, with drying activity intensifying across the Gediz plain. So far, there are no reports of major weather‑related damage, suggesting a normal to good physical flow into the supply chain. Yet, supply actually available for export will depend on producer selling behaviour after the disappointment of the 80 TL/kg announcement versus pre‑season expectations closer to 150 TL/kg.

On the demand side, exports are expected to gather pace from the second week of September as European and other importers begin to cover Q4 and early 2027 needs. The timing and volume of these early shipments will be critical: a slow start could keep raw material in producer hands and cap any near‑term downside in euro prices, while strong early demand may absorb the new crop quickly and even support premiums for higher grades and organic lots.

Fundamentals & Policy

TARIS has set a preliminary purchase price of 80 TL/kg for the 2026/27 season, regardless of quality, and announced that physical intake will commence on 10 September. This level is clearly below growers’ cost‑based aspirations and is explicitly positioned as an advance rather than a final season price. As such, it establishes a soft floor but does not yet define the full-season revenue outlook for producers.

The decisive policy signal is still pending from TMO, whose intervention price is expected to be the real benchmark for the market. Until TMO reveals its level, both farmers and exporters are operating in a pricing vacuum. This uncertainty is likely to limit aggressive forward selling from growers and may keep exporters cautious in offering large volumes at fixed prices, especially for later shipment windows.

Weather & Harvest Outlook

Early September weather forecasts for Manisa point to mostly warm and dry conditions with daytime highs commonly in the mid‑20s to low‑30s °C, supportive of continued drying on the trays. So far, there is no indication of prolonged rainfall events that could materially disrupt the harvest or degrade quality in the short term. Localized showers remain a perennial risk, but current outlooks are broadly favourable for raisin production.

If this benign pattern persists through mid‑September, the physical availability of standard‑quality Sultanas should be ample. In that case, price formation will hinge more on policy support levels and external demand than on crop losses. Any unexpected shift to cooler, wetter conditions would quickly be watched for mould and colour issues, especially in late‑harvest parcels.

Trading Outlook (next 2–3 weeks)

• Importers (EU, UK): Use the current lull and flat euro offers to secure partial cover for Q4 at EUR 2.15–2.40/kg FOB for conventional Turkish Sultanas, but avoid over‑committing before TMO’s price is known.
• Packers & industry buyers: Prioritise securing consistent quality lots early, as the flat 80 TL/kg across grades may reduce producer incentive to separate and allocate better qualities later in the season.
• Producers in Turkey: Consider staggered selling rather than immediate full delivery at the advance price, keeping some volume available in case TMO announces a higher intervention level or export demand strengthens.
• Traders: Monitor TMO announcements and early September export statistics closely; either could trigger a quick adjustment in offer levels, especially for higher grades and organic material.

3‑day price indication

• Turkey FOB (Malatya) – Sultanas type 8–10: Sideways in the short term, around EUR 2.15–2.40/kg, with a slight downside bias if sentiment focuses on the low 80 TL/kg advance.
• Northwest Europe FCA (Dordrecht/Hamburg): Stable for Turkish RTU and Chinese Sultanas near EUR 2.20–2.95/kg; no immediate pressure expected before clearer signals from TMO and first export flows.
• India FOB (New Delhi): Slightly firmer tone for golden AA near EUR 2.55–2.65/kg, while black and brown AA likely remain range‑bound just under EUR 2.05/kg.