Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Indian and Turkish Offers Set the Tone

Raisin prices are broadly steady to slightly firm, with India and Turkey anchoring export references while Chinese and Afghan origins offer selectively competitive levels into Europe. No sharp weather or supply shocks have emerged in the last few days, so near‑term price risk is skewed more to gradual firming than to a correction. Indian wholesale mandis report raisins around ₹201/kg at Bijapur as of 10 September 2026, indicating stable domestic levels into the key September–November drawdown window. Turkish sultana prices remain relatively stable, with Malatya weather in September seasonally warm and dry, supportive for drying and quality. In China’s Xinjiang region, early September temperatures are slightly above normal but broadly favourable for autumn harvest and drying, underpinning adequate supply. Chile’s central and northern regions are benefitting from ample winter moisture, which is positive for grape development, while Afghanistan’s trade flows remain shaped more by logistics and regional geopolitics than by any acute weather stress.

Prices

All prices below are approximate, converted to EUR using ~€1 = ₹90 and ~€1 = 1.10 USD where needed.

Domestic Indian wholesale prices around ₹201/kg (≈€2,230/mt) for mixed raisins at Bijapur are broadly in line with export‑grade golden offers ex‑Maharashtra and New Delhi, suggesting limited immediate downside while monsoon‑related quality concerns persist.

Supply & Demand

In India, raisin supply is fixed from the February–April drying window, so early‑September markets respond mainly to storage drawdown, holding costs and the coming festive demand pull. Local reports indicate a slightly firm tone as buyers monitor crop quality in Sangli, Tasgaon and Nashik, with some concern about monsoon variability but no confirmed major damage so far.

Turkey remains the key sultana reference for Europe, with current export pricing described as relatively stable and well supported by steady global demand. Chinese sultanas are being offered aggressively into Europe at slightly lower levels, helping cap upside on Turkish and Indian quotations for standard bakery and cereal applications. Afghan green and black raisins continue to find niche demand, but outbound trade is constrained more by logistics and regional security than by vineyard conditions, keeping these origins a supplemental rather than dominant supply source.

Weather & Crop Conditions (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

• Afghanistan (AF): No major new weather shocks reported for key raisin areas; the main risks are transport and border disruptions rather than climate in early September.
• Chile (CL): Northern and central Chile are experiencing one of the wettest winters in decades, reflected in an exceptionally strong Atacama bloom, signalling ample soil moisture ahead of the 2026/27 grape cycle and broadly supportive conditions for next year’s raisin crop.
• China (CN): Meteorological bulletins for Xinjiang indicate temperatures modestly above normal but generally favourable for autumn harvest and drying, with no widespread adverse events flagged in the last few days.
• India (IN): The southwest monsoon is in its late phase; current concern is more about quality of stored stock and grape prospects for the next cycle than about immediate weather damage, and markets are watching Maharashtra closely.
• Turkey (TR): Malatya’s September forecast shows warm, mostly dry conditions (highs upper‑20s to low‑30s °C), favouring final drying and maintaining quality for sultanas without signalling heat stress at this stage.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Global raisin reference indications around €1,450–2,100/mt FOB/CIF across mainstream origins suggest a balanced market, with no origin clearly undercutting the others once quality and freight are considered. Indian and Turkish offers remain the benchmark for standard sultanas and golden raisins, while Chinese lots provide tactical discounts for cost‑sensitive European buyers.

Within India, early‑September commentary points to a slightly firm undertone as traders weigh monsoon impacts, storage costs and upcoming festival‑season demand. Export‑oriented intermediaries are advised to secure quality lots when available, rather than waiting for a large correction that current data do not support.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Buy‑side (importers, packers): Gradually build coverage on Indian and Turkish sultanas for Q4 needs; use competitive Chinese offers for value segments but maintain quality discipline for retail‑pack lines.
• Sell‑side (growers, exporters): For India and Turkey, hold offers near current levels; prioritize timely shipment and quality assurances over aggressive price hikes, as Chinese and Afghan supply still cap upside.
• Industry users: Consider locking in a portion of Q4–Q1 volumes now, as fundamentals favour a mild firming bias into the festival and winter baking season rather than a price break.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR terms)

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi/Maharashtra): Sideways to mildly firm (0–1% higher) as domestic wholesale remains steady and sentiment is supported by monsoon and storage concerns.
• Turkey (TR, FOB Malatya/Izmir): Largely sideways; warm, dry weather supports quality but global demand and Chinese competition limit any abrupt move.
• China (CN, FOB Xinjiang / FCA EU): Sideways with a slight soft bias as exporters continue to price competitively into Europe to secure market share.
• Chile (CL, FOB/FCA): Stable; current focus is on favourable moisture for the upcoming crop rather than near‑term price moves.
• Afghanistan (AF, FOB inland / FCA EU feed‑grade): Sideways; logistics and regional tensions dominate over weather, keeping prices range‑bound around current discounts.