Vietnam Cashew Exports Firm as Kernel Market Stays Quiet

Vietnam’s cashew export prices are drifting higher on strong Chinese and US demand, but the physical kernel market remains subdued, leaving processors squeezed between firmer offers and hesitant buyers. Vietnam shipped robust volumes of cashew kernels in July 2026, with modest year‑on‑year growth and a clear improvement in average export prices. China and the United States underpinned demand, while the Netherlands and Gulf buyers turned more cautious. Despite better price realizations on paper, spot kernel trading stayed thin: bids for core grades such as WW320 remain near processors’ cost levels, curbing selling interest. European offers in the Netherlands appear stable in EUR terms, pointing to a market that is edging firmer but not yet breaking out, as buyers continue a wait‑and‑see approach into late August.

Prices

Vietnam’s average cashew kernel export price in July rose 5.7% year on year to about USD 7,151/t, with January–July prices up 3.4% to USD 7,038/t. Converting at roughly 1 EUR = 1.09 USD, this implies an average July export level near EUR 6,560/t.

In the physical kernel market, WW320 bids were reported around USD 3.03–3.08/lb (approximately EUR 6.05–6.15/kg), a range at which many Vietnamese processors report losses and therefore limit their offers. This underscores the current margin squeeze: export statistics show firmer prices, but spot trading liquidity is poor and sellers are cautious.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam exported 70,570 t of cashew kernels in July 2026, up 3.8% from 67,984 t a year earlier. Cumulative shipments in January–July were broadly flat at 412,026 t versus 412,714 t in the same period last year, confirming that global demand is steady rather than booming.

China was the largest buyer in July with 18,137 t at an average price of USD 7,369/t, followed by the United States with 14,889 t at USD 6,944/t and the Netherlands with 4,101 t at USD 7,327/t. Over January–July, China and the US both increased purchases (to 99,283 t and 90,576 t respectively), while Germany and Canada also bought more, highlighting robust demand in key consuming regions.

At the same time, some traditional routes softened. Exports to the Netherlands fell from 36,578 t to 30,697 t year on year, and shipments to the UAE plunged from 13,835 t to 6,316 t. Saudi Arabia also reduced imports to 7,665 t from 9,350 t. This shift signals a re‑balancing of trade flows, with more product moving into China, North America and parts of Europe, while some Middle Eastern demand steps back or diversifies suppliers.

Fundamentals & Margins

The firming in Vietnam’s average export prices masks a challenging margin environment. Buyers’ WW320 bids near USD 3.03–3.08/lb leave many processors at or below breakeven, prompting them to restrict forward offers and focus on immediate, high‑priced destinations such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, which paid average July prices of USD 8,579/t and USD 8,200/t respectively.

This segmentation is increasingly visible: price‑sensitive European and Gulf buyers reduce volumes or push back on higher offers, while premium markets with stronger brand or quality requirements accept higher prices but for limited tonnages. Combined with stable to slightly higher offer levels in India and Vietnam for standard grades, the global cashew complex appears well supplied in volume but tight on profitable processing capacity.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

With cumulative exports flat and prices modestly higher, the near‑term cashew outlook points to a sideways‑to‑slightly‑firmer bias, constrained by weak physical liquidity and cautious downstream buying. Much will depend on whether Chinese and US demand remains strong into Q4 and how aggressively processors defend margins.

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Consider covering a portion of Q4 needs at current EUR levels, especially for WW320 and higher grades, while keeping flexibility for potential dips if demand softens.
• Processors / exporters: Avoid deep discounts below the USD 3.00/lb equivalent for WW320 where losses become entrenched; prioritize higher‑priced destinations and tailored specs.
• Traders: Look for relative value between origins: the gap between Vietnam FOB and European FCA prices suggests some room for margin on well‑timed imports, but liquidity risk remains high.

3‑Day Price Indication (directional)

• Vietnam FOB kernels (WW320, standard grades): Stable to slightly firm in EUR terms as processors resist lower bids.
• India FOB kernels (W320/W240): Largely stable, tracking Vietnamese reference but cushioned by domestic demand.
• North‑West Europe FCA (NL hub): Mostly stable offers for WW320 and broken grades; limited downside without a clear demand shock.