Vietnam’s Raw Cashew Buying Spree Tightens Global Kernel Market

Vietnam’s aggressive buying of expensive African raw cashew nuts and firm kernel demand are lifting international cashew prices and increasing margin risk for processors and buyers. Vietnam’s cashew sector has moved into mid‑2026 with record raw-nut import spending and only modest export growth in volume terms, signalling a market driven more by prices than by physical expansion. Strong competition among Vietnamese processors for African raw material is pushing up international raw-cashew values and underpinning kernel prices from Asia to Europe. With import costs now exceeding export earnings, the world’s key processing hub is exposed to any softening in kernel demand, while buyers face a tighter negotiating environment and rising replacement costs.

Prices

Customs and trade data show that Vietnam’s raw-cashew import bill rose by about 12.3% year on year by 15 July, outpacing a roughly 4% increase in import volumes. This implies a clear rise in average raw-nut prices, supported by strong processor demand and limited local raw-material availability.

Indicative kernel offers also reflect the firmer tone. Taking a rough working assumption of 1 USD ≈ 0.91 EUR, recent Indian FOB offers for conventional W320 kernels at around 7.10 USD/kg translate to approximately 6.46 EUR/kg, while Vietnamese WW320 quotes near 6.92 USD/kg equate to about 6.29 EUR/kg. European FCA quotations for conventional WW320 around 5.05 USD/kg are roughly 4.60 EUR/kg, showing a clear origin discount versus Asian offers and highlighting tight but still tiered pricing along the value chain.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam imported about 1.81 million tonnes of raw cashew nuts by 15 July 2026, setting a new high for this point in the year. Local orchards cannot supply enough raw nuts to keep factories running, so processors rely heavily on Côte d’Ivoire and other African origins, where competition for exportable surplus has intensified.

On the demand side, Vietnam exported roughly 373,000 tonnes of cashew products in the same period for revenues near 2.63 billion USD. Export volumes eased slightly year on year, but higher selling prices generated a 3.1% increase in export earnings, underlining resilient downstream demand in the United States, China and Europe despite higher retail prices.

Fundamentals & Margins

The striking feature of 2026 so far is that the value of Vietnam’s raw cashew imports has exceeded earnings from processed exports, leaving the sector in a trade deficit position. This inversion underscores how quickly raw-material costs have risen relative to kernel prices and how dependent processors are on efficient utilization and strong sales to protect margins.

Industry participants attribute this imbalance to expensive raw nuts, high processing demand and structurally inadequate domestic production. Growing competition among Vietnamese processors for African supplies is feeding directly into higher international raw-cashew benchmarks, which in turn support kernel prices but also cap processing profitability and heighten the sector’s exposure to any demand slowdown or logistical disruption in West Africa.

Short-Term Outlook

With Vietnam still actively buying and African origins aware of strong processor appetite, raw-cashew prices are likely to remain supported in the near term. Kernel values should stay firm to slightly higher as processors seek to pass on elevated input costs, although any weakening in demand from major importers could quickly pressure margins rather than raw prices.

Weather conditions in African producing regions during the tail end of the marketing season will be important but are currently secondary to the demand-driven and capacity-related dynamics in Vietnam. Market participants should watch for signs of rationing in end-user markets if higher kernel prices start to bite into consumption in Europe and North America.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers with uncovered fourth-quarter needs should consider layering in coverage on price dips, as strong Vietnamese raw-nut demand continues to support kernel values.
• Roasters and retailers may wish to diversify suppliers between Vietnam, India and Europe to balance cost, quality and logistics risk in a tight raw-material environment.
• Processors should closely monitor Africa-origin supply and freight developments, as any disruption could further tighten raw-nut availability and squeeze margins.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction in EUR)

• India (FOB, W320 kernels): Stable to slightly firmer around the mid‑6 EUR/kg area.
• Vietnam (FOB, WW320 kernels): Firm tone, mild upward bias just above 6 EUR/kg.
• Europe (FCA Netherlands, WW320 kernels): Stable with a modestly firmer bias in the mid‑4 EUR/kg range as replacement costs rise.