Vietnam Star Anise FOB Hanoi Holds Firm While Organic Eases Slightly
Vietnam star anise FOB Hanoi prices hold firm in mid‑August, with organic slightly weaker. Stable supply, normal weather and steady export demand shape the outlook.
Prices
Indicative Vietnamese FOB Hanoi prices, converted to EUR (≈0.90 EUR/USD):
Conventional grades are holding steady, reflecting balanced spot demand and cautious farmer selling ahead of the main autumn harvest. Organic lots show a slight week‑on‑week easing, suggesting buyers are negotiating more aggressively where quality premiums were previously stretched.
Supply & Demand
Lang Son province alone accounts for about 43,000 ha of star anise, roughly 70% of Vietnam’s total growing area, with 28,000 ha in stable bearing and an annual dried output of 12,000–14,000 tonnes. This underpins a structurally ample exportable surplus, particularly to China, India, the Middle East and Europe.
Recent provincial and promotional documents emphasize continued development of star anise value chains and essential oil distillation in Lang Son and adjacent northern mountainous districts, but do not flag any acute production shortfalls or disease outbreaks in 2026. On the demand side, China remains the key buyer, using Vietnamese star anise both directly and for re‑export; the absence of new tariff or border changes in the last few days suggests a stable policy backdrop.
Weather & Crop Conditions (VN focus)
Northern Vietnam’s star anise belt (notably Lang Son and neighboring upland districts) typically experiences high summer rainfall around 1,400 mm annually, with warm July–August temperatures and large diurnal ranges that favor essential oil accumulation in the pods. No credible reports in the last three days indicate extreme heat, flooding or storms severe enough to materially damage the 2026 crop in these core areas.
Given this backdrop, the 2026 main harvest set for late August–September is currently expected to be near normal in volume and quality. Any late‑season weather events now would mainly influence harvest logistics and drying conditions rather than change yield potential dramatically.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Large, stable supply base: The extensive, mature orchards in Lang Son and nearby provinces provide a predictable flow of raw material, moderating price spikes absent exceptional shocks.
- Export‑oriented structure: Vietnamese star anise is heavily export‑focused, particularly to China, where evolving RCEP tariff schedules further incentivise regional trade over time.
- Value‑added products: Growth in essential oil and processed derivatives adds incremental demand, but remains too small currently to drive major short‑term price dislocations.
- Historical volatility: Past studies underline that star anise prices can fluctuate sharply with border demand swings; however, no such abrupt policy or demand shock is evident in mid‑August 2026.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading View
With the new crop approaching and no major weather or policy threats visible, the near‑term bias for Vietnamese star anise FOB prices is sideways to mildly softer, especially for organic grades where buyers seek discounts. Conventional trade is likely to remain range‑bound as exporters balance stock‑building with price discipline.
- Exporters: Consider locking in forward sales on a portion of expected new‑crop volume at current conventional price levels, while keeping some flexibility to benefit from any late‑season demand uptick.
- Importers/Blenders: Use current stability to cover Q4 needs, prioritising quality‑certified Lang Son origin; stagger purchases to capture any modest post‑harvest dip.
- Producers: Maintain disciplined selling; avoid heavy pre‑harvest liquidation that could pressure prices just as main demand from border trade gears up.
3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, directional)
- Hanoi FOB – Conventional star anise: ≈ 6.90 EUR/kg; bias: stable over the next 3 days.
- Hanoi FOB – Organic star anise: ≈ 6.20 EUR/kg; bias: slightly softer (downside of up to 1–2% possible on negotiation).