Vietnam Star Anise FOB Holds Firm as New Crop Arrives

Vietnamese star anise FOB prices from Hanoi are broadly steady, with organic grades edging fractionally lower and conventional unchanged, as the main northern crop moves into the market and export demand from Asia, especially India and China, remains firm. Exporters report a balanced spot market: farmers are selling more actively after recent rains but are not under strong pressure, while overseas buyers are replenishing ahead of year‑end festival demand. Weather in northern Vietnam is forecast warmer and slightly drier than normal in September, limiting immediate crop damage risks but keeping a close eye on potential typhoon activity. Trade data point to resilient Asian demand and rising interest from India and other spice-consuming markets, underpinning current price levels and suggesting only modest short‑term volatility.

Prices

FOB Hanoi indications for Vietnamese star anise (converted to EUR at ~0.93 EUR/USD) show organic lots around EUR 6.40–6.50/kg and conventional grades near EUR 7.20–7.30/kg, broadly in line with indicative wholesale ranges for Vietnam anise of USD 2.97–4.07/kg (about EUR 2.76–3.79/kg) depending on quality and channel. Recent days have brought only a marginal softening for organic product, while conventional prices remain flat, reflecting a stable bid–offer structure.

The narrow discounting in organic reflects slightly slower orders and some hedging sales as the new crop becomes more visible, while conventional grades benefit from steadier, volume-driven buying from Asian spice blenders.

Supply & Demand

Star anise supply in northern Vietnam is transitioning from late-harvest to early main-crop flow, particularly in Lang Son and Cao Bang, which dominate national output. Recent market commentary highlighted limited farmer selling in early August as growers waited for clearer price signals, but this has gradually improved as harvest progresses. There are no major reports of acute crop losses this week despite earlier-season storms in the north.

On the demand side, India and broader Asia remain the key growth drivers. Official and industry reports emphasise that India is a primary outlet for Vietnamese spices, including star anise, and a core focus for exporters in 2026. A trade briefing released today underscores India’s weight in historical star anise imports from Vietnam, reinforcing expectations for continued strong drawdown into Q4. Solid Asian buying and stable import bands for anise seeds in Vietnam’s own trade statistics also confirm healthy regional flows.

Fundamentals & Weather

Recent export data show that Vietnam’s star anise sector entered mid-2026 with firm prices and robust shipments, supported by favourable natural conditions in core producing provinces and strong demand from Asia and the Americas. This helps explain why current FOB levels are being defended despite only modest spot buying from Europe and other higher-cost destinations.

For September 2026, Vietnam’s national meteorological service forecasts average temperatures about 0.5–1.0°C above normal and rainfall in the northern region and north-central strip 20–40% below climatological averages. That implies a generally favourable, drier-than-normal backdrop for drying and logistics in star anise areas, while the seasonal risk of tropical storms over the East Sea remains near historical norms. At this stage there is no specific, imminent storm signal directly threatening Lang Son and neighbouring provinces in the next few days.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias (3–7 days): Sideways to slightly firm. Stable Asian demand and manageable weather risks suggest only marginal moves around current FOB Hanoi levels.
• For exporters: Consider locking in forward contracts on a portion of expected new-crop volumes at today’s flat structure, especially for higher-oil lots from Lang Son that continue to command premiums in Asian markets.
• For importers/blenders: Near-term dips in organic offers (vs. conventional) are an opportunity to cover Q4–Q1 needs, given forecast drier weather and the potential for later-season storm or logistics disruptions to tighten availability.
• Risk watch: Monitor updates from Vietnam’s disaster management authorities and meteorological service for any rapid development of typhoons in the Gulf of Tonkin that could impact northern transport routes and late-season picking.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (VN, FOB Hanoi, EUR)

• Organic star anise: EUR 6.30–6.50/kg, bias: stable to slightly softer intraday, but no break of the current range expected.
• Conventional star anise: EUR 7.15–7.35/kg, bias: stable; modest upside risk if fresh export tenders from India or China emerge.