Almond Market Firms as Indian Demand Waits for Festive Trigger

Imported California almonds are holding firm in India as reduced selling by importers meets cautious pre-festive demand, keeping both in-shell and kernel prices supported. A broadly tight global kernel balance and only modest price moves in Europe suggest a market biased slightly to the upside into the September–October festive window. India’s dry-fruit trade shows a clear two-speed pattern: almonds are steady to firm, while other premium spices such as nutmeg, cinnamon and mace are softening on weak wholesale demand. For almonds, importers’ limited selling and higher international replacement costs are underpinning prices despite buyers’ reluctance to rebuild stocks aggressively ahead of the main festive season. Globally, California’s supply is ample but not burdensome, with lower uncommitted stocks and only marginally smaller crop expectations, pointing to stable-to-firmer prices rather than a sharp correction.

Prices

In New Delhi, imported California in-shell almonds are quoted around USD 311–316 per 40 kg, while almond kernels trade at roughly USD 11.1–12.0 per kg, both holding firm on the back of reduced selling by importers and stable underlying demand.

Converted at an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD, this implies Indian market levels near EUR 7.10–7.30 per kg (in-shell equivalent) and EUR 10.10–10.95 per kg for kernels. Wholesale almond prices in France are around EUR 2.61 per kg for generic bulk product, reflecting lower-quality or mixed origins and confirming a wide quality and origin spread within Europe.

Current offers for U.S. almond kernels (Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22) around Washington, D.C. are broadly stable near EUR 6.70 per kg (FAS), while premium organic Nonpareil 27/30 trades closer to EUR 9.35 per kg. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types mostly range between EUR 5.60 and 8.90 per kg FOB Madrid, with small but consistent week-on-week increases, confirming a gently firmer tone across key origins.

Supply & Demand

In India, almonds are an outlier within the dry-fruit and spice complex: while nutmeg, cinnamon and mace have weakened due to sluggish wholesale demand, almonds remain supported as importers sell cautiously and await the key festive demand window.

Recent California shipment data indicate the 2025/26 crop year closed with total shipments up slightly year on year and ending carryover stocks down about 4%, leaving less uncommitted supply than last season. India’s annual imports from California ended lower, but this reflects shelling and timing decisions more than structural demand loss, and local Indian markets have moved to premiums over origin as domestic inventories tightened.

For 2026, California almond production is forecast around 2.65–2.70 billion pounds, only marginally below the previous year. This suggests sufficient global supply, but not the surpluses seen in earlier years. With the Indian festive season approaching and emerging markets gaining importance in overall demand, the balance points to firm consumption and limited downside on prices into Q4, provided macro or currency shocks do not significantly erode purchasing power.

Weather & Crop Conditions

California’s 2026 crop has developed under generally warm, dry conditions, with NOAA and regional assessments highlighting above-normal summer temperatures across much of interior California and Nevada and an elevated probability of a strong El Niño through early 2027.

Recent outlooks also signal intermittent late August to early September storm activity and thunderstorms in parts of California, raising some harvest-timing risks but not yet pointing to major production losses. Evapotranspiration reports underline ongoing high water demand in orchards, but no acute water-stress signal has emerged at regional level. Overall, weather remains a watch point for harvest quality rather than a clear bullish supply shock.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Importer behavior in India: Reduced selling from importers is a key pillar supporting local almond prices, even as other premium spices soften. This indicates confidence that festive demand will absorb current stocks at or above today’s levels.
• Inventory and carryover: California’s sold position exceeds last year’s, and estimated ending stocks are modestly lower, limiting availability of discounted volumes and underpinning firm kernel values.
• Trade flows shifting: Earlier in the season, export demand partially shifted from India toward markets like Turkey and parts of Western Europe, but India remains the largest single destination and will be critical for new-crop pricing during the coming months.
• Relative value vs. substitutes: The concurrent weakness in nutmeg, cinnamon and mace underscores that current almond firmness is product-specific, driven more by supply tightness and festive timing than by broad-based dry-fruit inflation.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / industrial buyers (India, MENA, Asia): Consider covering near-term festive needs now, as importer-controlled inventories and lower California carryover reduce the probability of a meaningful pre-festive price dip. Stagger additional coverage into Q4 to manage any weather-related harvest surprises.
• European buyers: With Spanish and U.S. kernel offers in EUR trending gently higher, time bulk purchases before further strength in kernels or adverse currency moves. Focus on locking in premium varieties (Marcona, organic Nonpareil) where liquidity is thinner.
• Producers / handlers: Current firmness justifies a patient sales strategy into the festive window, but avoid over-tightening offers; excessively rapid price escalation could trigger substitution or volume deferral in price-sensitive markets.

3-day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• India (import-parity, California in-shell & kernels): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR terms as importers maintain offer discipline and festive demand begins to build.
• U.S. export offers (Carmel, Nonpareil kernels): Mostly steady in EUR, with a mild upside bias tied to firm kernel demand and limited uncommitted stocks.
• Spain (Marcona, Valencia, Guara kernels): Slightly firmer tone expected to persist, reflecting tight quality supply and supportive replacement costs from California.