Almond Market Steadies as Sustainability and Pollination Risks Move Center Stage

Almond prices are holding at firm levels while the industry shifts its focus toward long‑term productivity, water risk and pollination security ahead of a major grower conference in Australia. Near‑term physical prices show stability, but strategic discussions on crop health, irrigation efficiency and bee availability could shape future supply and quality. Almond kernels from the US and Spain have traded broadly sideways in August in euro terms, with only marginal week‑on‑week movements. At the same time, the upcoming 2026 Australian Almond Conference in Adelaide (13–15 October) will bring together growers, researchers and global industry leaders to address pest control, soil health, water, bees and sustainability. With California and Australia both reassessing climate and pollination risks, the market’s medium‑term balance will increasingly depend on growers’ ability to secure water, protect tree health and maintain reliable bee services.

Prices

Current offer levels in late August 2026 indicate a steady to slightly firmer almond market in EUR terms. US origin Carmel SSR kernels are quoted around EUR 6.65–6.70/kg FAS, while organic Nonpareil SSR 27/30 from the US is near EUR 9.30/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types mostly trade between EUR 6.60 and 8.85/kg FOB Madrid, with Guara-based grades at the lower end around EUR 5.55–6.10/kg.

Over the past three weeks, both US and Spanish reference prices have edged up by roughly EUR 0.05–0.15/kg depending on grade, confirming the firmer trend already noted in recent Californian benchmark series, where FAS US reference prices rose by more than 25% over the 2025/26 season. Wholesale terminal-market indications in the US similarly show elevated price ranges in late August, consistent with a tighter, more balanced global market.

Supply & Demand

The Australian industry is preparing for the 2026 Almond Conference at a time when global supply is being reassessed. Senior Californian industry representatives and the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council will present on production, consumption and trade, signaling that both major origins are closely watching cost inflation, climate risk and demand in key import markets.

In California, 2025/26 ended with significantly higher benchmark prices, reflecting tighter supply expectations after a smaller-than-forecast crop and solid exports. July 2026 shipments from California continued to grow year-on-year, supporting firm prices into the new crop year, as highlighted by recent market updates and position reports. On the demand side, strong kernel usage in snack and dairy-alternative categories appears intact despite higher prices, suggesting relatively inelastic consumption in core markets.

Australian supply is increasingly strategic for diversification away from California, but local production faces structural constraints from water and pollination. Research projects in the Murray–Darling Basin are focusing on varietal water and nutrient requirements to stabilise yields under variable irrigation allocations. At the same time, the spread of varroa mite through eastern Australia has sharply reduced bee numbers, triggering large interstate bee movements and raising concerns about pollination shortfalls for almonds.

Fundamentals & Conference Themes

The Adelaide conference agenda is heavily weighted toward technical levers that directly influence commercial outcomes. A specialist masterclass on pest and disease management, along with sessions on soil-borne diseases, soil disinfestation and almond-tree root architecture, aims to improve orchard establishment, tree health and long-term yields. Better disease control and optimised root systems are expected to reduce losses and support consistent kernel quality, which is increasingly rewarded in a quality‑differentiated market.

Research from California on carbohydrate storage and growth potential will be a core feature, indicating active cross-hemisphere technology transfer. These topics are significant for growers facing higher input costs and tighter water budgets: trees with stronger carbohydrate reserves and healthier roots can better tolerate regulated deficit irrigation strategies now being promoted for drought conditions in Australia’s almond regions.

The final conference day will focus on water, bees and sustainability – arguably the main long-run cost and risk drivers for Australian almonds. Water availability and irrigation efficiency dominate the sector’s cost base, while dependence on managed bee populations for pollination has become a critical vulnerability due to varroa and rising hive prices. Sustainability discussions are likely to address customer expectations around water stewardship, biodiversity and carbon, which increasingly influence access to premium markets and long-term demand.

Weather & Pollination Outlook (Key Regions)

In California’s Central Valley, the harvest period is underway with generally seasonally hot, dry conditions through late August, supportive for shaking and drying but maintaining pressure on irrigation water use and stressing bee forage outside the bloom window. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 crop, water allocations and winter precipitation will remain decisive for bloom-time risk and orchard productivity.

In Australia’s main almond belt (South Australia and the Murray–Darling Basin), growers are managing flowering and early nut set under constrained bee availability, as national reports project a substantial shortfall of commercial hives for peak pollination. This situation underlines the importance of the conference’s focus on pollination security, water-efficient irrigation strategies and integrated orchard management to stabilise yields despite climate and biosecurity shocks.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): With July shipment data supportive and no immediate supply shock, almond kernel prices in EUR are likely to remain firm to slightly higher, particularly for premium Nonpareil and Spanish specialty grades.
• Growers / sellers: Use current firmness to scale in forward sales on top-quality lots, especially where water and pollination risks could cap future output. Keep flexibility on lower grades that may benefit from further price strength if new-crop receipts disappoint.
• Buyers / processors: Consider covering Q4–Q1 needs on US Carmel and Nonpareil at today’s levels, while staggering purchases of Spanish and Australian origin until clearer indications emerge from the Australian conference and early new-crop flows.
• Risk focus: Watch upcoming Almond Board position reports and updated crop estimates, as well as Australian pollination outcomes; any downgrade to production potential could trigger another leg up in prices from already elevated baselines.

3‑day directional outlook (EUR basis):

• US Carmel SSR (FAS): stable to slightly firmer
• US Nonpareil SSR organic (FOB): stable at elevated levels
• Spanish Marcona / Valencia (FOB): broadly stable, firm undertone