Almond Prices Firm as Importer Selling Stays Limited and Festive Demand Builds

Almond prices are firming as restricted importer selling meets gradually improving demand, with kernels also gaining ground. Near‑term direction hinges on how aggressively importers release stocks, evolving international replacement costs, and the strength of upcoming festive buying. The market is transitioning from inventory-driven weakness to a more balanced environment, underpinned by strong export interest and slightly tighter California supply expectations. July and August trade data point to robust overseas demand, particularly from India and the Middle East ahead of Diwali, while early indications suggest the 2026 California crop will be only slightly smaller than last year. With wholesale and export benchmarks stabilizing at higher levels than in 2024, buyers are turning more tactical, and any renewed selling wave from importers could quickly shift the tone.

Prices

In the physical market, California almonds are quoted around USD 309.16–314.40 per 40 kg, while Gurbandi almonds are trading near USD 335.36–345.84 per 40 kg, confirming a strengthening trend for both in-shell and kernel product. Almond kernels have also moved higher as demand improved, especially in consumer and festival-led segments.

Recent export benchmarks broadly corroborate these levels, with US shelled almond export values around USD 6.65/kg in June 2026, close to current kernel offers. Domestic terminal markets in the US report wholesale ranges roughly equivalent to EUR 6.0–7.5/kg depending on variety and pack size, aligning with firmer CIF/FOB indications.

(USD values converted to EUR at ≈1.08 USD/EUR; table is indicative only.)

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, California’s 2026 crop is expected to be slightly smaller than the previous year after early-season heat episodes, though improved post‑bloom weather has helped nut retention. Harvest began one to three weeks earlier than normal, with processors now focused on how quickly new-crop volumes will reach huller/shellers and the export channel.

Demand remains broadly constructive. Export shipments have been robust, with June exports reported up double digits year on year and new‑crop export commitments accelerating. India continues to anchor demand ahead of Diwali, while Middle Eastern buyers are active despite higher freight costs. Festive demand in key consuming countries, combined with only moderate production growth, is helping to support the current price floor.

In contrast, importer selling has been relatively restricted in recent weeks. Many importers, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East, appear reluctant to sell aggressively ahead of the main festival season, expecting to achieve better replacement values later. This withholding behavior has tightened nearby availability and contributed directly to the observed price strength in both in‑shell and kernels.

Fundamentals & Weather

Market fundamentals are shifting from surplus to closer balance. The 2025/26 season already saw carry‑in stocks reduced from earlier expectations, and benchmark indices such as NAL1 are significantly higher year on year, signaling that low‑price regimes of 2024 have passed. With the 2026 crop forecast only slightly below last year, the market is not facing a severe shortage, but the era of heavy oversupply is easing.

Weather remains a short‑term watchpoint rather than an immediate threat. Recent outlooks for late August point to continued hot conditions across much of California’s Central Valley, with potential monsoonal moisture mainly impacting mountain and desert areas rather than core almond acreage. Irrigation demand stays high, but no widespread weather damage is currently anticipated. As harvest progresses, attention will shift from weather to post‑harvest logistics and quality outcomes.

On the demand side, consumer interest in nuts remains resilient, with almonds benefiting from their established position in healthy snacking and plant‑based diets. However, buyers are highly price‑sensitive after recent rallies, and substitution into cheaper nuts can occur if almond offers move too far above competing tree nuts.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

In the near term, the key swing factor is importer selling behavior. If importers continue to restrict offers while festive demand builds, prices are likely to remain firm to slightly higher. Conversely, any coordinated selling wave to monetize high inventories ahead of year‑end could cap further gains or trigger short‑lived corrections.

• Importers / Roasters: Consider covering a portion of Q4 needs on current dips, especially for premium kernels, but avoid over‑extending at higher offers until the flow of new‑crop export sales becomes clearer.
• Exporters / Packers: Maintain disciplined offer strategies; with strong demand from India and the Middle East, prioritize higher‑margin kernel business but remain flexible for in‑shell inquiries tied to festivals.
• Industrial users: Lock in volumes for promotional or private-label programs where pricing remains close to recent averages, while keeping some exposure open in case of a post‑festive pullback.

3‑Day Directional View (Key Hubs, in EUR)

• US export kernels (FOB/FAS): Sideways to mildly firm; stable in the EUR 6.0–6.3/kg area as traders assess early‑harvest flow.
• Spanish almonds (FOB Mediterranean): Largely steady in the EUR 7.0–8.0/kg range for conventional Marcona/Valencia; no immediate catalyst for sharp moves.
• South Asian import markets: Slight upward bias as local demand improves and importer selling remains cautious ahead of festivals.