Almond Prices Rebound as India Waits for Festive Spark

Almond prices in the Indian market have rebounded after a sharp mid-week correction, but the recovery remains fragile and highly dependent on upcoming festive demand. Spot buying from dry-fruit traders is still cautious, leaving the market balanced between weak near-term consumption and firm replacement costs. Almond in-shell and kernel prices in Delhi slipped early in the week on soft demand from dry-fruit buyers before recovering into the weekend. California almonds are now quoted around EUR 290–295 per 40 kg equivalent, while kernels have stabilised near EUR 10.30–11.10 per kg depending on quality, reflecting only a partial recovery from earlier losses. With India’s festive season approaching and importers sensitive to California replacement levels, the next few weeks will determine whether this rebound hardens into a firmer price floor or fades back into rangebound trade.

Prices

California almonds in India dropped earlier in the week as wholesale dry-fruit demand turned weak, before recovering to approximately EUR 290–295 per 40 kg by the weekend. Kernel prices followed a similar pattern, easing first and then stabilising around EUR 10.30–11.10 per kg on a quality-adjusted basis.

Export offers from origin remain broadly steady in euro terms. Recent quotations for US almond kernels (Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22) are around EUR 6.70 per kg FAS Washington, while premium organic Nonpareil kernels hover near EUR 9.35 per kg FOB. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types mostly trade in a EUR 5.60–8.90 per kg FOB Madrid range, with modest week-on-week gains, underlining a generally firm global kernel complex.

Supply & Demand

In India, demand from dry-fruit buyers and stockists remains muted, with traders reluctant to build large positions ahead of clearer festive-season signals. The broader dry-fruit complex is mixed: almonds have stabilised, while other high-value items show softer trends, keeping retailers selective on pricing and promotions.

On the supply side, California remains the dominant origin and is entering the new crop phase with generally supportive fundamentals. Strong export interest from India and the Middle East into the September–October festive window, alongside constrained importer selling, continues to underpin kernels even when local spot demand is slow. This combination leaves the near-term balance mildly tight despite the absence of a decisive demand surge.

Fundamentals

The recent price dip and rebound in Delhi highlight a market driven more by importer behaviour and replacement costs than by structural oversupply. Importers have reduced aggressive selling, preferring to wait for confirmation of California’s final crop size and pricing before committing to new long positions.

Globally, the kernel balance appears tighter than in previous seasons, with nonpareil and other premium grades commanding clear price differentials. While California production is not facing a severe shortfall, acreage rationalisation and disciplined selling have removed some of the heavy overhang seen in earlier years. This underpins a higher floor for kernels and limits the downside for India-delivered almonds unless festive demand disappoints significantly.

Weather & Crop Outlook

California’s 2026 crop has developed under predominantly warm, dry conditions, which have accelerated harvest timing and hulling in many districts. Current weather forecasts point to continued dry, seasonally hot conditions across much of the Central Valley, favourable for harvest progress but maintaining pressure on irrigation and water costs.

No major short-term weather shocks are visible for key almond-growing areas, suggesting that supply risks in the next few weeks will stem more from logistics and processing speeds than from field losses. Provided weather remains cooperative, the global market is likely to see a steady flow of new-crop almonds, reinforcing the current pattern of firm but not explosive prices.

Trading Outlook

• Importers in India: Use the current post-correction rebound to secure partial coverage for core festive needs, focusing on high-turn grades, while avoiding overextension in case demand stays below expectations.
• Roasters and packers: Consider locking in kernel requirements for Q4 at today’s firm-but-manageable levels, especially for Nonpareil and premium sizes where global tightness is most visible.
• Growers and shellers: Maintain disciplined selling; the recent recovery suggests buyers will return as festive demand crystallises, but aggressive offers could quickly cap further upside.

3‑day directional outlook (EUR): For India-delivered California almonds, prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly firmer as traders test consumer willingness at higher levels. Export offers from the US and Spain are expected to remain broadly stable in euro terms, with minor upward bias on select kernel grades if pre-festive enquiries accelerate.