Almond Market Firms on Smaller US Crop and Weak Domestic Demand

California’s 2026 almond crop is shaping up as only marginally smaller than last year, but early heat, mixed bloom weather and structurally weaker US demand are tightening the balance enough to support firmer prices. Growers’ profitability, however, remains finely poised between rising costs and the need to defend prices near the equivalent of about EUR 2.75–2.85/kg. After a volatile bloom and an accelerated season, the almond market is entering harvest with better pricing power but still confronted by demand headwinds at home and structural shifts in water and acreage. A slightly smaller California crop around 2.7 billion pounds, combined with reduced bearing area and earlier-than-normal harvest, is limiting downside risk if kernel size holds up. At the same time, higher fuel and fertilizer costs and persistent domestic demand weakness are forcing growers and buyers to reassess long‑term strategies, with exports and regional production shifts gaining importance.

Prices

Spot and forward prices have strengthened in recent weeks as market participants internalize a sub-trend California crop and tighter kernel availability. US growers are broadly targeting around USD 3.00/lb to cover rising costs; this translates to roughly EUR 2.75–2.85/kg depending on grade and exchange rate. This is consistent with the modest firming seen in kernel offers across key origins.

Recent price indications show US-origin Carmel SSR kernels around EUR 6.60–6.65/kg FAS Washington D.C., while organic Nonpareil 27/30 trades near EUR 9.25/kg FOB. Spanish kernels have also edged higher, with standard Marcona 12/14 at about EUR 6.55/kg FOB Madrid and Valencia types mostly between EUR 7.05 and 7.40/kg. The synchronized uptick in both US and Spanish quotations underlines a broader tightening rather than a purely local move.

Supply & Demand

California’s 2026 almond production is officially forecast at 2.7 billion pounds, around 1% below last year, with bearing acreage expected to fall 1% to 1.39 million acres. The estimate is based on telephone surveys and stands as the only official forecast this season after the industry withdrew funding for the former objective measurement survey, prompting traders to benchmark it carefully against private crop numbers.

Bloom and early-season weather were mixed. Rain during peak flowering disrupted bee activity and pollination for several days, while warmer-than-normal March temperatures accelerated kernel development and pulled harvest forward by 10–14 days in some areas. The earlier start has already brought some deliveries into hullers from July, raising the likelihood that harvest will finish ahead of typical late-October rains and thereby reduce quality risk from wet weather.

Despite weaker pollination conditions, improved post-bloom weather helped nut retention, so the main uncertainty now lies in kernel size and final yields following spring heat. Production costs are a major constraint: higher fuel and fertilizer prices, together with several years of low almond prices, have led growers to cut back on orchard spending and to remove older blocks. Water restrictions under California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act are also reshaping the long-term supply base, encouraging a gradual shift of some plantings northwards and signaling potential future acreage reductions in water-stressed districts.

On the demand side, domestic US almond sales remain soft, leaving exports as the key outlet. Recent official and industry data show domestic off-take in the 2025/26 season running well below previous years, while export shipments are comparatively more resilient and increasingly focused on markets such as Turkey and parts of Western Europe rather than India and China. This reinforces the importance of competitive export pricing and logistics as the main balancing mechanism for the coming crop.

Fundamentals & Weather

Structurally, the modest decline in bearing acreage, combined with years of suboptimal returns, is nudging the market away from the chronic oversupply that weighed on prices in earlier seasons. At the same time, California’s Central Valley remains the dominant global supplier, and even a 1% year-on-year decline in production leaves absolute volumes historically high, keeping the market sensitive to demand swings rather than outright shortages.

Current seasonal weather across the main almond belt is broadly supportive. Early-season heat has already brought forward kernel maturity, and August conditions have been near to slightly cooler than normal in parts of California, limiting additional heat stress during harvest. An earlier finish should lower the probability that late-October rainfall damages nut quality on the trees or hinders field access, an important quality and cost risk mitigation for handlers.

Growers are now intensely focused on realized yields per acre and kernel sizing to determine whether revenues can match rising input costs. With target yields near 3,000 pounds per acre and aspirational prices around USD 3/lb, any downside surprise on yield or size without compensating price gains would squeeze margins further. Conversely, if quality proves better than feared and demand stabilizes, current cost pressures could cap supply growth and underpin a more durable price floor.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

In the short term, the combination of slightly smaller supply, earlier harvest and softer domestic demand points to a cautiously firm market into early autumn. Price moves are likely to remain moderate as long as export demand absorbs available volumes and no major negative surprises emerge on final yields. Weather risks now center more on localized harvest disruptions than on large-scale crop loss.

• Importers/roasters: Consider covering a modest additional share of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs on current dips, especially for standard US and Spanish material, while keeping some flexibility in case of any post-harvest pressure.
• Industrial users: Lock in volumes for higher-spec and organic Nonpareil where differentials may widen if kernel size disappoints; use staggered purchases to manage price risk.
• Growers/shippers: Avoid over-committing before kernel sizing is clear, but use the current firmer tone to scale into sales near or above your cost-cover levels, particularly if early quality looks strong.

Over the next three trading days, EUR-based almond kernel prices on key US FAS and Spanish FOB bases are expected to remain slightly firm to sideways, with a mild upward bias in actively traded grades. Any fresh news on realized yields or updated shipment figures could trigger short-term volatility, but a sharp correction appears unlikely without a significant positive surprise on crop size.