Almond Prices Edge Higher as California Tightens and Spain Bakes

Almond prices in both the US and Spain are firming into late August, supported by tighter California kernel supply and heat- and drought‑affected conditions in key Spanish regions. Forward coverage for 2026/27 is increasing, limiting downside while leaving markets sensitive to any additional weather or harvest shocks. Spot almond markets are consolidating this week with a clear upward bias in California kernels and Spanish Marcona and Valencia grades. Recent reports highlight a rebalancing of California’s 2025/26 balance sheet around a smaller‑than‑expected crop, strong export interest and limited grower selling at earlier price levels, all of which underpin current offers. At the same time, Spain is emerging from an exceptionally hot and dry July, keeping yield risks in focus even as official production expectations have improved year on year. Liquidity remains moderate, but buyers in Europe and the Middle East are steadily extending coverage into Q4, supporting a mildly bullish near‑term tone.

Prices

Using a working FX assumption of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR, current benchmark offers translate as follows:

These levels are broadly aligned with reports of firming California kernel benchmarks into mid‑August as supply tightens and demand holds, with spot values up by more than a quarter versus earlier in the season. Spanish origin indications remain at a premium to bulk Californian material, particularly for Marcona and Valencia, reflecting varietal preference in Mediterranean confectionery and limited local availability.

Supply & Demand Drivers

In California, industry sources describe a market that has shifted from surplus to a more balanced position. A smaller‑than‑expected 2025/26 crop, ongoing orchard removals and solid export shipments have reduced carryout and tightened kernel availability into the new harvest. Preliminary 2026 crop estimates around 2.65–2.7 billion lbs suggest no major supply rebuild, encouraging buyers to extend coverage rather than wait for lower prices.

Demand remains mixed by region. US domestic shipments are described as structurally weaker, but export channels continue to absorb volume, with India, Europe and MENA leading recent buying. Importers are increasingly uncovered for August–December 2026, except India, leaving scope for short‑term price spikes if harvest or logistics disruptions occur.

In Spain, official data earlier in the season pointed to a sizeable year‑on‑year recovery in almond output driven by expanded planted area, notably in Andalusia. However, domestic spot quotations from Spanish exchanges such as Reus and Ebro already showed firm to rising values into early summer, especially for Marcona and Guara, signalling strong local and export pull despite improved production.

Weather & Crop Outlook (ES, US)

Spain has just experienced the warmest July on record, with national statistics confirming very hot and exceptionally dry conditions across much of the country. While almonds are relatively drought‑tolerant, prolonged heat and soil moisture deficits during kernel fill can limit size and increase insect and disease pressure, leading to quality downgrades rather than outright crop losses. This risk is especially relevant for unirrigated and marginal orchards in Andalusia and other southern regions.

In California, the 2026 harvest is gaining traction with generally favourable weather so far. Industry commentary notes steady progress in shaking and picking, with no major heat or storm events reported in the last few days that could materially disrupt harvest or drying. However, any late‑season rain or extended heatwave would quickly tighten kernel availability, given already constrained stocks.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Stocks and carryout: Lower California carryout and modest new‑crop expectations underpin current price resilience and limit downside below recent ranges.
• Trade flows: Export demand remains the main driver of movement, offsetting weak US domestic offtake; buyers in Europe, Middle East and Asia are gradually extending coverage into late 2026.
• Spain’s role: Spain’s recovering crop adds some regional supply, but varietal preferences and high domestic consumption keep premiums over Californian standards, sustaining two‑tier pricing in Europe.
• Speculative sentiment: With prices now well off earlier lows and weather risks still present, the market tone is cautiously bullish; many buyers appear more concerned about upside risk than downside potential for Q4 2026.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• European buyers (food industry, roasters): Consider layering in additional Q4 2026–Q1 2027 coverage on price dips, especially for Spanish Marcona/Valencia and Californian Nonpareil, as weather and harvest headlines could trigger short, sharp rallies.
• Importers in MENA and Asia: Maintain at least normal coverage through December; given tight current‑crop inshell and firm kernels, waiting for significant corrections appears risky near term.
• Producers and handlers (US, ES): Gradual, disciplined selling remains advisable; avoid heavy forward sales at current levels until more clarity on final 2026 yields and quality emerges.

3‑day directional outlook (all in EUR terms):

• US (California, kernels ex‑US): Mildly bullish – offers in EUR/kg likely to edge another 0.02–0.05 higher as harvest progresses and uncovered demand surfaces.
• Spain (Marcona, Valencia, Guara): Firm to slightly higher – tight high‑quality supply and heat‑related quality concerns point to stable or +0.02–0.04 EUR/kg over the next three sessions.