Almond Prices Edge Higher as US Crop Stabilises and Spanish Premiums Hold

Almond prices in both Spain and the US are ticking moderately higher, supported by a stable but slightly smaller California crop forecast and firm Mediterranean premiums. Short-term weather is benign for harvest in California and largely neutral in Spain, leaving demand and currency the main near-term drivers. Almond markets are entering the early 2026/27 Northern Hemisphere marketing window with balanced fundamentals. In California, the latest USDA subjective forecast pegs 2026 almond production at 2.70 billion pounds (shelled), just 1% below last year on slightly lower bearing area but unchanged yields, signalling ample exportable supply but no new surplus shock.   In Spain, structurally tighter local supply and strong confectionery and snack demand continue to justify a premium over US-origin kernels, particularly for Marcona and Valencia types. With short-term weather cooperating in California and no fresh disruption headlines in Spain, prices are firming modestly rather than surging.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using ~0.90 EUR/USD for comparability.

US standard grades have edged up about EUR 0.05/kg over the past week, while Spanish origin offers have posted similar incremental gains across Marcona, Valencia and Guara. Organic product retains a sizeable premium in both origins.

Supply & Demand Drivers

US (California)

• The latest USDA/NASS subjective forecast (May 2026) projects California almond production at 2.70 billion pounds (shelled), 1% below last year but with stable average yields, implying only marginal tightening in overall supply.
• ERS analysis from March highlights that cool, rainy weather during the February 2026 bloom reduced bee activity and complicated orchard management, but subsequent nut development through summer is progressing in line with normal patterns, with harvest from mid-August through October.
• Medium-term, bearing acreage is fractionally lower year-on-year, signalling a plateau in California expansion after a decade of rapid growth, which should limit further structural pressure on prices.

Spain

• Spain remains the second-largest producer globally, but volumes are far below California, and production is fragmented across regions such as Catalonia, Valencia, Murcia, Andalusia and Aragón. This supports a persistent domestic premium, especially for local types like Marcona and Valencia.
• Recent trade commentary in Europe (dry fruit and nut merchants) indicates steady demand from confectionery and bakery sectors into Q4 contract period, with buyers selectively extending coverage as California offers firm slightly from earlier lows.

Weather Outlook (Next 3 Days)

US – California

Public weather forecasts for the Central Valley over the next three days (14‑16 August 2026) point to typical hot, dry summer conditions with maximums mainly between 33–36°C, minimal precipitation and low relative humidity.

• Such conditions are favourable for early harvest activities and drying of windrowed nuts in orchards.
• No immediate weather-related yield or quality threats are evident in the very short term.

Spain

For key Spanish almond zones (Valencia, Murcia, Andalusia, Aragón) over 14‑16 August 2026, forecasts show seasonally hot, mostly dry weather, with scattered local thunderstorms but no prolonged rain events.

• Weather is broadly neutral for tree nut development and late field operations.
• No acute heatwave or storm signal strong enough to move prices in the next few days.

Fundamentals & Price Implications

• Slightly tighter but comfortable US balance: A 1% year-on-year production dip, modestly lower acreage and unchanged yield indicate that California will not flood the market but can still adequately supply export demand. This underpins current modest price strength rather than a rally. 
• Stable to firm EU demand: European usage continues to trend upward in snacks and plant-based ingredients, encouraging EU buyers to lock in a portion of Q4 and early 2027 needs at current levels. 
• Origin differentials: Spain-origin kernels, especially Marcona and Valencia, maintain a clear premium over US standards due to perceived quality and proximity to EU consumers. This is reflected in EUR-denominated offer spreads of roughly EUR 0.50–1.50/kg depending on grade.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• European buyers (industrial): Consider covering an additional 2–3 months of nonpareil and standard kernel demand while US prices remain only moderately above recent lows and before harvest pressure and logistics costs can shift sentiment.
• Spanish packers: For Marcona and Valencia, maintain slightly above-normal inventory coverage; local premiums are intact and could widen modestly if California harvest weather turns adverse later in the season.
• Speculative/merchant positions: Bias remains mildly bullish in EUR terms given limited downside from a near-flat US crop and ongoing demand growth, but current fundamentals do not justify aggressive length.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• US, standard kernels (Carmel, FAS, Washington D.C.): Slight upward bias; expect prices to be flat to +0.05 EUR/kg over the next three days, assuming stable FX and no negative harvest headlines.
• Spain, Marcona & Valencia (FOB Madrid): Firm; prices are likely to hold or edge up by around +0.05 EUR/kg, driven by steady domestic and EU confectionery demand.
• Organic kernels (US & ES): Stable; premiums should be maintained, with a flat to mildly firmer tone as niche demand remains resilient.