Almond Prices Find a Floor as Strong July Shipments Tighten Carryout

California’s July shipment data point to a firmer almond market, with higher-than-expected offtake, faster selling progress and a smaller carryover setting a mildly bullish tone into early autumn. Spot kernel prices in both the US and Spain are edging higher in EUR terms, and participants now expect stable-to-stronger levels through October, provided rallies do not overshoot and erode demand. The new data show that exporters, particularly to Europe, have absorbed a larger share of supply than anticipated while US domestic demand remains uneven. With over 92% of marketable supply already sold and carryout projected lower year on year, the market balance for 2025/26 looks tighter than in recent seasons, despite only modest changes in total shipments. Weather risk in California’s orchards and Southern Europe’s rain‑deficit backdrop remain secondary but supportive factors as buyers reconsider previously defensive strategies and return to the market.

Prices

California shipped 203.6 million pounds of almonds in July 2026, up 3.3% year on year and above market expectations of around 199 million pounds. Traders describe the report as supportive for prices, and spot offers have started to reflect this firmer tone.

Based on recent offers, benchmark US almond kernels (Carmel SSR, 18/20) around 6.65 EUR/kg FAS Washington D.C. and nonpareil organic 27/30 near 9.25 EUR/kg FOB show a modest week‑on‑week uptick. Spanish Marcona and Valencia kernels have also edged higher, signalling broader tightening rather than a purely US‑centric move.

Supply & Demand

Total shipments for the completed 2025/26 crop season reached 2.63 billion pounds, just 0.6% below last year, but the composition shifted: exports rose 3% to 2.03 billion pounds and now account for 77% of total shipments, surpassing both the industry forecast of 75% and the three‑year average of 73%.

Europe drove much of this strength with a 5% rise to 681.2 million pounds, underlining the region’s role as the key incremental demand center. By contrast, US domestic shipments for the season fell 11.3% to 595.3 million pounds, even though July domestic offtake jumped 6.2% year on year to 53.2 million pounds, the strongest monthly performance of the season in the US market.

India took 378.5 million pounds (down 11%), but market feedback attributes this mainly to shelling decisions and product mix rather than a drop in underlying consumption. Shipments to China and Hong Kong were more clearly weak, down 34% to 33.3 million pounds, reflecting structural demand softness and ongoing macro‑related caution.

Fundamentals & Stocks

By the end of July, the industry had sold 92.1% of total marketable supply, about 1.6 percentage points ahead of the same time last season. This faster selling pace, together with firm July shipments, has pulled projected carryover stocks down to around 494.2 million pounds, 4% lower year on year.

There is some residual uncertainty around final supply, as government crop‑receipt data sit roughly 10 million pounds above industry figures. Any upward revision to marketable supply or carryout would marginally loosen the balance, but the order of magnitude is small relative to total shipments, so the overall constructive tone is unlikely to change unless discrepancies widen.

Structurally, the export‑heavy demand profile increases sensitivity to currency moves and global macro conditions, but also supports floor pricing when key destinations like Europe remain active. With US domestic demand showing signs of stabilisation in July, fundamentals are aligned for at least a sideways‑to‑firmer price pattern into the arrival of new‑crop volumes.

Weather & Crop Watch

Current reports from California indicate growers are actively managing orchards with adequate water availability, while the lingering impact of prior summer heat episodes on yields and tree health continues to be monitored. Local heat spikes and elevated pest pressure remain ongoing risks, particularly for Nonpareil blocks that already showed lighter flower set in recent seasons.

In Spain, seasonal hot and dry conditions continue to define the production outlook, keeping a weather risk premium in domestic kernel prices. Over the coming 3–5 weeks, markets will focus on harvest progress, any quality downgrades from heat stress, and updated yield assessments in both California and Southern Europe.

Trading Outlook (next 4–8 weeks)

• Growers & handlers: With carryout reduced and over 92% of supply sold, consider a measured approach to additional sales. Use current firmness to lock in margins on nearby positions but retain some volume for potential further appreciation into October.
• Importers & industrial buyers: Buyers who delayed coverage in anticipation of cheaper offers are now returning; extending coverage through Q4 2026 at current levels appears prudent, especially for key sizes and qualities where alternatives are limited.
• Traders: The risk skew is modestly to the upside. However, an overly rapid price spike could choke off demand before new‑crop flows deepen; favour buying on dips rather than chasing rallies.

3-Day Price Indication (direction, key hubs)

• US FAS/FOB (California kernels in EUR): Slightly firmer bias as the bullish July shipment narrative continues to filter through offers.
• Spain FOB (Marcona/Valencia kernels in EUR): Stable to mildly higher, supported by tighter global balance and ongoing weather risk premiums.
• Other Europe CIF: Mostly steady with a modest upward tilt, tracking California and Spanish origin moves and renewed spot buying interest.