Almond Prices Hold Firm as Early Spanish Harvest Meets Tight US Balance Sheet

Almond prices in both Spain and the US are broadly steady at elevated levels, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves and tight nearby offers for premium grades. Early Spanish harvest progress under hot weather and a firm but not explosive US export market are keeping a floor under prices in late August. Underlying market sentiment remains constructive. Spanish producers report an advanced harvest with generally good yields despite heat episodes, while California enters the 2026/27 crop year with strong shipments and historically high pricing after several months of robust export demand. Buyers face limited downside in the short term, especially for high‑quality Marcona and Nonpareil, and are advised to secure nearby cover while maintaining some flexibility for the post‑harvest period.

Prices

Spot almond kernel prices are flat on the week across main Spanish and US references, consolidating gains made earlier in August. Spanish Marcona 12/14 is holding around EUR 6.60/kg FOB Madrid, while higher sizes and specialty Marcona and Valencia grades trade at a premium near EUR 7.10–8.85/kg. US Carmel SSR and organic Nonpareil quotes are also unchanged in EUR terms, reflecting a stable but firm export market. Averaged across grades, current Spanish export values around the equivalent of EUR 6.7/kg align with broader export unit values published for Spain’s almond sector, underlining that today’s spot indications are close to recent multi‑month highs.​​

Supply & Demand

In Spain, the 2026 almond harvest is reported to be running about 10 days ahead of normal due to repeated summer heat waves, but overall yields are described as good and broadly similar to last year. Recent farm‑gate comments indicate average shell‑free yields of about 200 kg/ha in dryland and 1,500–2,000 kg/ha in irrigated orchards, with field prices around EUR 5.30/kg for kernel in producing regions, suggesting a balanced supply situation rather than surplus pressure.​​

California, which anchors global almond supply, is entering the new 2026/27 marketing year with very strong shipment momentum. The Almond Board’s latest data set shows July 2026 shipments at roughly 203.6 million lbs, up around 3% year‑on‑year, and market commentators highlight that overall pricing is now at the highest levels in about a decade.​​ Combined with a 2026 California crop forecast of roughly 2.70 billion lbs—just slightly below last year—this implies a relatively tight but not critically short global balance.​​

Weather & Harvest Conditions (ES, US)

Spain’s summer 2026 has been marked by several heat waves, with temperatures above 40°C in key producing regions and an official national drought‑monitoring bulletin still showing stress in parts of the country.​​ The heat has accelerated ripening and harvest but, according to grower reports, has only trimmed yields in the upper canopy and is not expected to materially reduce total production versus 2025. Overall field sentiment points to a good crop with decent kernel quality.

In California, July and early August brought a prolonged heat pattern across the Central Valley, with daytime highs frequently exceeding 38–40°C and minimal overnight relief.​​ Blue Diamond’s crop progress update noted an early‑running crop and growers moving quickly to prepare for harvest amid concerns over a significant heat wave.​​ While irrigation and orchard management have generally limited major damage, the hot, humid conditions raise some risk to kernel quality and size in later‑harvested blocks.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Recent trade data show US shelled almond exports averaging about USD 6.65/kg (≈ EUR 6.10–6.20/kg) in June 2026, broadly in line with current FOB offer levels for standard California kernels.​​ Industry market updates in mid‑August emphasize that prices across many specifications are now at multi‑year highs, supported by strong export demand and disciplined selling ahead of harvest rather than excess inventory liquidation.​​

On the Spanish side, export unit values around EUR 6.77/kg reflect a healthy premium for Mediterranean origins in confectionery and snack channels.​​ With Spanish production stable and California not projecting a significantly larger crop, the global almond complex is unlikely to see the kind of oversupply that previously drove prices sharply lower. Instead, fundamentals point to a broadly balanced market with an upward bias in premiums for high‑quality and organic kernels.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Flat-to-firm bias near term: With early Spanish harvest confirming acceptable yields and California entering the crop year with strong shipments and historically high prices, spot almond values in EUR are likely to remain flat to slightly firmer over the coming 2–4 weeks.
• Buyers: Consider securing Q4 coverage on core grades (Guara/Valencia and standard Californian kernels) at current levels, prioritising quality premiums (Marcona, Nonpareil, organic) where upside risk is greatest.
• Sellers/producers: Given tight fundamentals and elevated global prices, a strategy of gradual, scale‑up selling into rallies is preferable to aggressive forward sales; retain some unpriced volume into post‑harvest in case of additional weather or logistics‑driven strength.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Spain (ES, FOB Mediterranean ports): Prices expected broadly stable over the next three trading days, with a slight upward bias for freshly harvested Marcona and Valencia lots as processors test early quality.
• United States (US, FOB/FAS West Coast): Spot export offers seen steady to marginally firmer as arrivals of new crop remain limited and wholesale terminal prices in US markets hold in a wide but elevated range.​​