Georgia’s 2026 almond harvest rises 29% to 4,500 t, but exports drop over 50% and import prices climb ~30%. Market balances between better quality and soft demand.
Prices
Georgia’s trade data signal a firming price environment. Import spending on blanched almonds in January–July 2026 stayed almost flat at about USD 2.49 million, even though volumes dropped from 433 to 338 tonnes. With a roughly 30% jump in the average import price, from about USD 5.64/kg to USD 7.36/kg, imported kernels are clearly more expensive for local buyers.
Current international offers also indicate a moderately supportive tone. Converting indicative offers at roughly EUR 0.93 per USD, standard US Carmel SSR kernels around USD 6.7/kg translate to approximately EUR 6.25/kg FAS, while premium organic Nonpareil is near EUR 8.70/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona kernels are around EUR 6.20–8.25/kg FOB Madrid, with Valencia and Guara types mostly in the mid-EUR 5–7/kg range. Overall, EUR-based prices have edged slightly higher over recent weeks, consistent with Georgia’s higher import unit values.
Supply & Demand
Georgia’s domestic supply is strengthening. The 2026 harvest is projected at around 4,500 tonnes, up nearly 1,000 tonnes year-on-year, even though adverse weather limited the upside. Orchard potential has not yet been fully realized, suggesting further growth ahead once young plantings reach full bearing.
On the demand side, export performance is currently the weak link. In January–July 2026, Georgia shipped just 92 tonnes of blanched almonds, down 54.2% from 201 tonnes a year earlier. Russia remained the main destination with 46 tonnes, followed by Iran (18 tonnes), Belarus (13.8 tonnes), the Netherlands (13 tonnes) and Syria (1 tonne). This contraction means a smaller share of the crop is being absorbed by foreign buyers.
At the same time, Georgia’s dependence on imported almonds, particularly for specific kernel types and value-added processing, remains notable but is easing slowly. Imports of blanched almonds dropped from 433 to 338 tonnes over the first seven months of the year. Turkey is now the key supplier, ahead of Spain and the United States. With domestic output rising, this import requirement could decline further — provided that local quality and specifications continue to improve.
Fundamentals & Trade Flows
The key structural shift in 2026 is the combination of higher domestic output and lower export volumes. While better quality almonds should make Georgian product more attractive, the current export slump indicates challenges in market access, pricing, or logistics. With Russia, Iran and Belarus dominating the buyer list, the export base remains geographically concentrated and therefore exposed to regional economic or policy shocks.
On the import side, a 30% increase in average prices suggests that international suppliers have regained some pricing power, whether due to higher global costs, tighter availability in certain origins, or currency effects. For Georgian processors blending local and imported raw material, this raises input costs and could squeeze margins unless higher selling prices can be passed through to retail or export customers.
Globally, California — still the dominant producer — is expected to deliver a slightly smaller almond crop in 2026, while Spain is looking at normal-to-recovering output after previous weather-related setbacks. These trends, together with steady demand for snacking and plant-based ingredients, are broadly supportive for prices and help explain why Georgia is paying more per kilogram for its imports even as volumes fall.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
Higher domestic availability and improved quality give Georgia an opportunity to gradually reduce import dependence, but the immediate challenge remains weak exports and higher import costs. Without a recovery in international demand, especially from Russia and neighboring markets, more of the 2026 crop will need to be absorbed domestically or carried over, limiting upside for farmgate prices despite higher global benchmarks.
Over the coming 3–6 months, the market is likely to see a cautious, slightly firmer tone in EUR terms, driven by higher import prices, global supply constraints in key origins, and ongoing interest from confectionery and snacking industries. However, any sustained price rally will require clearer signs that Georgian exporters are successfully placing the new crop and possibly diversifying into EU and Middle Eastern markets with premium-quality kernels.
- Growers in Georgia: Consider locking in forward sales for a portion of high-quality lots, especially export-grade kernels, while keeping some exposure to potential price appreciation if external demand improves.
- Importers and processors: Review contract coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027; with average import prices already up around 30%, staggered purchasing and origin diversification (Turkey, Spain, US) can help manage cost risk.
- Industrial buyers in Europe/CIS: Explore Georgian-origin almonds as a competitive alternative for select specifications, given improved quality and the need for Georgia to place a larger crop.
3-day directional outlook (EUR-based): With international reference prices stable to slightly higher and Georgia facing higher import costs but growing domestic supply, local and regional offers are expected to trade in a steady to mildly firmer range over the next three trading days, with limited room for sharp moves absent fresh news on exports or logistics.