Almonds: Australian Data Push Meets Firm EU and US Kernel Prices

Australia’s almond industry is doubling down on data and benchmarking just as global kernel prices in Europe and the US hold firm to slightly higher levels, underpinning a broadly constructive market tone. Almonds remain Australia’s most valuable nut crop, with industry value recently rising nearly 20% year on year and exports hitting record levels. At the same time, EU and US kernel offers in August show a mild upward drift, reflecting steady demand and cautious supply expectations. Against this backdrop, Australia’s new national statistics and benchmarking initiative aims to give growers and investors sharper tools for managing costs, water and yields, helping the industry to navigate ongoing production growth without oversupplying key markets.

Prices

Current almond kernel prices in EUR point to a stable-to-firm market. Recent offers for US Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 ex Washington D.C. stand around EUR 6.65/kg and EUR 6.60/kg FAS respectively, slightly above levels quoted in late July. Organic Nonpareil 27/30 from the US trades near EUR 9.25/kg FOB, while premium Spanish Marcona and Valencia types range mostly between EUR 6.55–8.80/kg FOB Madrid, with Guara-based kernels at the lower end around EUR 5.50–6.05/kg.

Over the last four weeks, most key references have moved up by roughly EUR 0.05/kg, signalling firm underlying demand rather than aggressive restocking. This modest appreciation is occurring despite rising supply expectations in Europe and sustained large crops in California, suggesting buyers are increasingly focused on quality, origin differentiation and reliable forward supply rather than simply chasing the lowest nominal price.

Supply & Demand

Australia is consolidating its role as a key export-oriented supplier. Industry value recently rose by 19.6% to more than EUR 1.32 billion equivalent, with export earnings around EUR 1.33 billion, the highest in a decade. This reflects both rising production and robust offshore demand, especially from high-value markets in Asia and Europe. Expansion of bearing acreage continues, with growers under pressure to control water and input costs while maintaining quality.

In Spain, grower groups estimate 2026/27 almond kernel production above 135,000 tonnes, around 6–7% higher than last season and one-third above the five‑year average, driven by expanding plantings in both irrigated and rain‑fed systems. California’s production outlook remains large, supported by earlier years of orchard investment, although local weather variability and water policy continue to shape yield expectations. Overall, global supply growth is steady but no longer outpacing demand as sharply as in previous boom years.

Fundamentals & Australian Benchmarking Drive

Australia’s new statistics and benchmarking project, funded by Hort Innovation and delivered by the Almond Board of Australia, is designed to provide robust, confidential performance data at farm level. Key indicators such as crop yield, water use, production efficiency and operating costs will be collected and compared across regions. Aggregated results will underpin industry-wide databases for production forecasting, market planning and trend analysis.

This initiative follows broader R&D investment in intensification, genetics and sustainability across Australian tree crops, positioning almonds to compete on efficiency rather than volume alone. Better benchmarking should help growers identify underperforming blocks, optimise irrigation infrastructure and refine input strategies, supporting margin resilience in an environment of rising energy, water and labour costs. For traders and processors, more reliable forward data reduces the risk of sudden supply surprises and supports more nuanced pricing structures by quality and timing.

Weather & Regional Outlook

Southern Australia’s almond regions are entering a critical phase where water availability and spring temperatures will determine final yield potential. National climate monitoring points to ongoing variability, but no immediate, broad-based shock for almond orchards has emerged in the last few days. At the same time, Spanish producers are coming off an exceptionally warm spring, which has generally supported fruit set but could heighten water stress where irrigation is constrained.

In California, recent months have seen episodes of heat and localised storms, but current drought indicators show conditions closer to average than during the severe drought years earlier in the decade. For now, weather is a watchpoint rather than a clear bullish or bearish driver, with markets more focused on structural supply growth and cost inflation than on a single-season production shock.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• For buyers: Use current stable prices in the EUR 6.5–7.5/kg range for standard kernels to secure nearby and early‑2027 coverage, especially for preferred origins and specific sizes, before Australian export flows potentially increase competition in key markets.
• For growers and sellers: The firm undertone and modest recent gains justify a patient, scale‑up selling strategy rather than heavy forward selling at current levels, particularly for premium Spanish and organic US product.
• For processors and roasters: Consider diversifying origin mix (US, Australia, Spain) to balance price and quality, while monitoring Australian benchmarking outcomes that could shift cost structures and competitiveness over the medium term.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• US kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil, EUR terms): Sideways to slightly firmer as export interest into Europe and Asia remains steady.
• Spanish kernels (Marcona, Valencia, Guara): Mild upward bias, supported by strong domestic and EU demand for Mediterranean origin and quality differentiation.
• Australian export offer ideas (EUR equivalent): Stable, with potential for a gradual firming trend as improved industry data underpins more disciplined marketing and capacity planning.