Asian Demand Lifts Almonds While Australian Pollination Becomes Key Wildcard

Chinese demand for Australian almonds has surged beyond last year’s record pace, while Indian buying shows signs of recovery, underpinning a mildly bullish tone in global almond prices. At the same time, Australia is entering a critical pollination window, leaving next season’s crop potential highly dependent on weather and orchard conditions. The current season’s export profile is increasingly Asia-centric. China has delivered steady, broad-based growth across the opening four months of the marketing year, helping to move available Australian supplies. India, by contrast, is rebounding later: June shipments jumped but still lag last season on a cumulative basis, so sustained strength in the coming months is needed. With around 300,000 commercial beehives being positioned in Australian orchards, pollination outcomes will be decisive for future supply expectations and price direction.

Prices

Almond kernel prices in key export grades have firmed slightly, reflecting robust Asian demand and a cautiously constructive outlook on Australian supply. Recent offers for US-origin kernels (Washington D.C., FAS/FOB) and Spanish material (FOB Madrid) show a modest uptrend over recent weeks.

(USD-denominated offers converted approximately at 1 EUR = 1.09 USD.) Overall, prices remain well below historic peaks but are edging higher as record-level Chinese buying improves spot and nearby demand, while market participants begin to price in pollination and yield risks in Australia.

Supply & Demand

China has become the primary growth engine for Australian almond exports early in the marketing year. Shipments to China are up 14% year-on-year in the opening four months, pushing volumes above last season’s record pace and reinforcing China’s role as a core outlet for Australian processors.

India’s demand pattern is more uneven. Australian exports to India rose 38% year-on-year in June alone, signalling a solid recovery in buying interest. However, season-to-date shipments remain below last year, which means several months of strong purchases are still required to close the gap. India’s structural dependence on imported almonds continues to underpin its long-term demand profile, but short-term buying remains sensitive to domestic stocks, festival demand planning and currency moves.

These contrasting dynamics highlight a key feature of the current season: China is providing steady pull throughout the early months, helping to clear supply, while India is acting as a more volatile, timing-sensitive buyer. For Australian exporters, maintaining momentum in both markets is essential to keep pipeline stocks moving and to avoid inventory overhang if the next crop is large.

Fundamentals & Pollination Outlook

Australia has entered its annual almond pollination period, a pivotal phase for determining the size and quality of the upcoming crop. Around 300,000 commercial beehives are being deployed across orchards to support flowering and nut set, underlining both the scale of the industry and its sensitivity to pollination conditions.

Effective pollination depends on suitable weather during flowering, strong bee activity and disciplined orchard management. Warmer, relatively dry conditions typically favour bee flight hours and pollen transfer, whereas extended cold, wind or rain can sharply reduce fruit set. Recent seasonal outlooks point to generally warmer and somewhat drier conditions across major Australian horticultural regions into late winter and early spring, which, if realised, would broadly support pollination but could also increase irrigation needs later in the season.【turn0search3】

Given record-level export demand from China early in the season, any indication that pollination has underperformed would quickly tighten forward supply expectations and could accelerate price gains. Conversely, strong pollination and favourable fruit set would keep a lid on medium-term prices but still require continued robust buying from China and a sustained Indian recovery to prevent stock build-up.

4–8 Week Market & Trading Outlook

• Baseline view: Slightly bullish bias. Record Chinese demand and improving Indian offtake support current prices, while pollination outcomes in Australia represent a key upside risk.
• Risk to the upside: Adverse weather during flowering or evidence of weak fruit set in major Australian almond districts would likely trigger firmer new-crop pricing and stronger nearby premiums.
• Risk to the downside: If pollination progresses well and India’s buying fails to maintain June’s momentum, exporters could face heavier stocks into the next marketing year, tempering price gains.

Focused recommendations

• Importers in Asia and MENA: Consider modestly advancing Q4–Q1 coverage while Australian pollination risk is unresolved, especially for key grades (Nonpareil and Carmel) where Chinese demand is strongest.
• Food manufacturers in Europe: Use current still-moderate price levels to secure core volumes but retain flexibility on later deliveries until clearer signals on Australian crop set emerge.
• Producers and exporters: Prioritise China and India with competitive early-season offers, but retain some unpriced volume to capture potential upside if pollination disappoints.

Short-Term Weather Relevance

Over the next several weeks, Australian almond regions are expected to see conditions that broadly favour bee activity, provided there are no prolonged cold or wet spells. Market participants should monitor localised weather events closely, as short disruptions during peak bloom can still materially affect yield potential and, by extension, price sentiment.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• US kernels, standard grades (FAS/FOB basis): Stable to slightly firmer; buyers active on dips, sellers reluctant to discount given Asian demand.
• Spanish kernels (FOB Mediterranean): Mostly steady with a mild upward bias, following international benchmarks and firm Asian pull.
• Premium organic and specialty grades: Firm tone, with limited availability and resilient demand keeping spreads over conventional material intact.