Chinese Raisins Ease in Europe as Global Sultana Market Stays Tight

Chinese-origin raisin prices in Europe have softened slightly, while Turkish and Indian offers remain broadly steady, leaving the global sultana/raisin complex tight but not spiking. Currency-adjusted, China retains a cost advantage into the EU, but the recent dip in Hamburg is modest and more reflective of sluggish European demand than any major supply shock. Across key raisin origins, spot indications show a narrow, range-bound market, with most grades holding flat over recent weeks. China continues to supply competitive sultanas into Europe despite tariff frictions with some partners and lingering ethical scrutiny in Western markets. Turkey’s supply remains structurally tight after earlier frost damage, but no fresh weather or policy shock has emerged in the last few days to move prices decisively. Indian bird-feed and table-grade raisins are steady, supported by stable domestic prices and ongoing export interest.

Prices

All prices approximate and converted to EUR where needed.

The standout move is the roughly 0.22 EUR/kg drop in Chinese RTU sultanas into Hamburg over the last three weeks, while other origins and grades are broadly unchanged. This indicates localized adjustment in Chinese offers rather than a synchronized global sell-off.

Supply & Demand

Turpan and other Xinjiang oases remain the backbone of Chinese raisin production, with large areas in Turpan’s Grape Valley dedicated to drying grapes under arid, high-heat conditions. Recent international analysis still characterizes global sultana/raisin supply as structurally tight, particularly from Turkey after earlier crop losses, which has kept prices elevated through early 2026.

China has been winning share in export markets as a lower-cost origin, especially in Europe, even as some buyers remain cautious due to ethical and sourcing concerns. At the same time, China’s macro picture is deflationary, with weaker-than-expected consumer prices, suggesting subdued domestic snack demand and a continued push to rely on exports to absorb output. This combination encourages competitive export pricing for Chinese raisins into the EU.

On trade policy, China maintains preferential tariff treatment for some raisin suppliers (e.g. Chile and Australia), while key competitors such as Turkey and Iran face 10% tariffs into China and U.S. raisins face a 35% duty plus VAT. This arrangement favors intra-Asia and FTA-driven flows but, given the small size of the raisin trade within China’s total imports, it has not generated acute short-term volatility this week.

Weather & Crop Outlook (China-focused)

Turpan and broader Xinjiang are in their peak summer heat period, with climatology showing extreme highs above 40°C and a very arid environment ideal for grape drying. No credible, date-stamped reports in the last three days point to new weather stress such as flooding or hail in major Chinese grape basins that would materially alter the 2026/27 raisin supply outlook.

Given the lack of fresh adverse weather headlines and the already-established arid conditions supporting drying, the working assumption for the next week is a normal to slightly favorable drying environment in Xinjiang. In the absence of shocks, weather is a neutral-to-mildly supportive factor for Chinese raisin availability into late August.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Chinese price dip vs. global tightness: The ~11% decline in Chinese RTU sultanas into Hamburg contrasts with stable Turkish and Indian offers, suggesting Europe-specific demand softness and competition between Chinese shippers, rather than a global surplus.
• Turkey constrained but stable: Earlier-season frost in Malatya sharply tightened Turkish sultana availability and pushed prices higher into early 2026, but in the last several days there have been no fresh supply or policy shocks, explaining the flat FOB/CIF quotes.
• India steady, supported by domestic market: India’s raisin sector, heavily concentrated in Maharashtra districts like Sangli and Nashik, sees relatively stable local prices, which aligns with the flat New Delhi export indications across grades.
• Macro and logistics: Broader freight markets are normalizing after earlier congestion and tariff-related frontloading, pointing to less upside pressure from logistics costs into late Q3 2026, but this has yet to translate into aggressive discounting outside the specific Chinese move in Hamburg.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias (next 1–2 weeks): Slightly bearish to sideways for Chinese-origin raisins into Europe, sideways for Turkish and Indian origins. No strong catalyst is visible in the last few days to trigger a renewed rally.
• Buyers (EU snack & bakery): Consider layering in coverage on Chinese sultanas for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 while Hamburg FCA quotes trade around or below EUR 1.90/kg, but keep exposure diversified with some Turkish volumes in case of renewed quality or sourcing scrutiny on Chinese product.
• Origin sellers (China): With domestic demand subdued and exports crucial, try to defend current EUR levels via quality and service rather than further price cuts; additional discounts risk re-setting the market lower without guaranteed volume gains.
• Origin sellers (Turkey/India): Hold offers near current levels; as long as no large new Chinese crop surplus emerges and logistics remain stable, present tightness in high-quality grades justifies steady pricing.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• EU (Hamburg/Dordrecht, Chinese & Turkish sultanas, FCA/CIF, EUR/kg): 1.85–2.30, bias: flat to slightly softer on Chinese, stable on Turkish.
• India (New Delhi, FOB, EUR/kg): 1.00–2.60, bias: flat; modest FX-driven noise possible but fundamentals steady.
• Turkey (Malatya, FOB/CIF, EUR/kg): 2.10–3.10, bias: flat; any weather or policy surprise would more likely push higher than lower.