Mild Uptrend in Raisin Prices as Supply Tightens from Key Origins

Raisin prices across key export origins are edging higher in late July 2026, driven by tighter available supply and firm demand from Europe. Turkish, Chilean, Chinese and Afghan origins show small but broad-based price gains, while Indian grades remain supported by reduced 2025/26 crop expectations and stable export interest. The overall tone is mildly bullish, but without signs of disorderly shortage. European buyers see Turkish and Chilean raisins remaining the reference for bakery and retail mixes, with China and Afghanistan increasingly competitive in lower and mid grades. Structural reductions in raisin production in Chile and India, together with only moderate growth in China and Türkiye, point to a leaner world balance sheet for 2025/26, keeping prices supported despite soft macro headlines. Weather in major growing areas is currently seasonally hot but not yet disruptive, allowing a shallow, orderly price uptrend rather than a spike.

Prices

All prices converted at ~1 EUR = 1.10 USD.

Supply & Demand

Global seedless dried grape production for 2025/26 is projected to fall versus 2024/25, mainly on lower crops in India, Iran and Türkiye, only partly offset by increases in China, Chile and South Africa. A March 2026 industry outlook from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council shows world raisin output dropping from about 1.35 million tonnes in 2024/25 to around 1.16 million tonnes in 2025/26, with India’s production falling particularly sharply and Afghanistan’s output rising to roughly 20,000 tonnes.

Chile’s official projections indicate a sustained decline in raisin area and output, with production expected around 62,000 tonnes in 2025/26, down from nearly 74,500 tonnes in 2023/24, constraining availability of higher-value flame and Thompson seedless types. China remains a key growth driver, with Turpan’s Grape Valley alone accounting for over 80% of national production and consolidating China’s position as a top global supplier of green and standard sultanas.

On the demand side, European snack and bakery usage remains resilient, while some price-sensitive buyers in the Middle East and South Asia are switching between origins based on short-term price differentials. Anecdotal trade data for Chilean dried grapes show exports down by mid-teens percentages year-on-year, implying some demand rationing at higher price levels but also tighter supply growth into 2026.

Fundamentals & Weather

In Türkiye, Malatya and surrounding sultana regions entered late July with seasonally hot, generally dry conditions, but with no fresh large-scale frost or hail events reported in the last three days. Recent market commentary still refers to earlier-season frost damage and low stock levels after a short 2024/25 crop, helping to underpin export quotations, especially for higher types.

India’s key raisin belt in Maharashtra (Sangli/Tasgaon) is in the monsoon season; the latest nationwide coverage updates indicate broadly normal rainfall patterns for July 2026, supporting grapevine growth without acute drought stress at this stage. China’s Xinjiang, including Turpan’s Grape Valley, is in its typical hot, arid summer pattern, with no new extreme-weather alerts directly impacting raisin vineyards in the last three days; longer-term climate analyses do highlight rising heat risks, but current-season conditions appear manageable.

Chile’s central valleys, where most raisin grapes are grown, have moved through mid-winter with no major storm or frost events flagged recently that would alter the 2025 harvest outlook, though structural water scarcity continues to cap medium-term production capacity. Afghanistan’s raisin industry, while small globally, is projected to expand from about 12,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to roughly 20,000 tonnes in 2025/26, adding competitively priced supply into Europe’s feed and industrial segments.

3–5 Day Market & Price Outlook

• India (AF region: IN) – With monsoon conditions supportive and no immediate supply shock, New Delhi FOB raisin prices are likely to remain firm to slightly higher (up to +1–2% in EUR terms) over the next three trading days, especially for golden AA and premium sorted lots.
• Türkiye (AF region: TR) – Malatya FOB offers for sultanas #9–10 look set to stabilise after recent downward corrections, with EU-delivered FCA prices in the Netherlands biased mildly higher (+1% range) on steady demand and tight high-grade availability.
• China (AF region: CN) – Xinjiang-based sultanas shipped FCA Hamburg/Dordrecht are expected to track Turkish moves, with a modest firm tone as buyers seek alternatives to high-priced Mediterranean origins.
• Chile (AF region: CL) – Chilean flame jumbo and Thompson raisins should retain a small premium and may gain another ~1% in EUR in the near term due to constrained exportable supplies.
• Afghanistan (AF region: AF) – Feed and standard grades from Afghanistan into EU hubs should continue to firm slightly, supported by competitive pricing versus Indian feed and by blending demand from packers.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers in Europe and MENA: Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026 and early 2027 needs now, especially for Turkish and Chilean origins, as structurally tighter global supply favors a gradual uptrend rather than a pullback.
• Blenders and feed users: Look at Afghanistan and Indian Malayar feed grades while differentials to food-grade material remain historically wide; these may narrow if food-grade prices rise further.
• Exporters in India, Türkiye and China: Use current firmness to lock in forward sales, but remain flexible on origin substitution and quality specifications as buyers increasingly arbitrage between Turkish, Chinese and Central Asian offers.

Across AF, CL, CN, IN and TR, the 3-day directional bias is moderately bullish in EUR terms, driven more by a tightening global balance sheet and resilient demand than by immediate weather shocks.