Raisin Prices Ease Slightly as New Season Approaches in Key Origins

Raisin prices across major export origins are edging lower but remain historically firm, with modest week‑on‑week declines in Turkey, China, Chile and Afghanistan-linked feed grades, and slightly softer premium Indian grades. The market tone is cautiously bearish in the very short term as buyers resist high offers and wait for clearer signals on new‑crop availability. Physical trade is quiet in Europe and the Middle East as many buyers cover only nearby needs ahead of the Northern Hemisphere drying season. Recent weather in key raisin belts of Turkey, India and China has been seasonally warm with adequate moisture, but no major extreme event in the last few days forcing a sudden revision of crop expectations. With logistics functioning normally and no fresh policy shocks reported, near‑term price direction will mainly depend on how aggressively origin sellers move volumes before the main export campaign.

Prices

Latest transactional indications (FOB/FCA, converted at ~1.10 USD/EUR) suggest the following levels:

Price spreads remain wide between standard food grades (around 2.0–2.6 EUR/kg) and organic or specialty product, particularly Turkish organic sultanas, which still trade above 2.80–3.00 EUR/kg equivalent despite muted spot demand in Europe and the Middle East.

Supply & Demand Snapshot (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

Turkey (TR)

Turkey remains the price leader for sultanas, but export volumes have been constrained in recent months as growers and traders hold remaining old‑crop stocks, anticipating stronger levels into the 2026/27 campaign. Industry commentary earlier in the summer already pointed to record‑low export flows at existing prices, and that buyer resistance is pushing more negotiations into a "wait‑and‑see" mode.

Over the last few days no new government intervention or support price announcement has been reported for sultanas, so market participants assume continuation of current policies and a commercially driven opening to the new crop.

India (IN)

India’s raisin sector is concentrated in Maharashtra (Sangli and neighboring districts) and Karnataka, where grapes for drying are mostly harvested earlier in the year and are now in storage. Recent monsoon conditions over major grape belts have been generally favorable, with adequate rainfall but no extreme flooding reported in the last three days that would materially alter the stored raisin supply story.

Domestic demand is seasonally moderate, with festival-led buying still some weeks away, encouraging exporters to be flexible on grade differentials while keeping headline offers broadly steady.

China (CN)

Chinese sultana and green raisin production is centered in Xinjiang, where current weather is hot and dry as the grape ripening and early drying period approaches. Over the last 72 hours there have been no major adverse weather warnings specific to the raisin districts, supporting expectations for a broadly normal new crop. (Sourcing via regional meteorological and agricultural updates.)

Export demand from Europe has been quiet as buyers compare Chinese offers with Turkish and Indian alternatives, pressuring EU‑warehouse Chinese stocks and contributing to the slight softening in FCA prices noted above.

Chile (CL)

In Chile, the 2026 grape harvest and drying were completed earlier in the year, and product is now moving from packers and EU stock positions. Southern Hemisphere supply is largely known, and no fresh weather‑related news in the last few days is affecting raisin availability.

Demand from Europe is focused on specific premium applications such as flame jumbo for mixes and bakery, which keeps a quality premium but still allows for incremental price concessions on container‑sized lots.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan continues to supply competitively priced brown and feed‑grade raisins into European warehouses. Historical analysis shows Afghan raisins usually trade at a discount to other origins due to quality and grading constraints, a pattern that persists today in FCA quotations.

No major logistical disruptions or border closures have been reported in the last few days on the main export corridors via Pakistan and Iran, allowing a steady but unspectacular flow into EU hubs.

Fundamentals & Weather Check

• Stocks: EU and Middle East importers report comfortable nearby coverage, particularly in standard sultana grades. Old‑crop stocks in Turkey and India are adequate, but sellers are cautious about offering large volumes ahead of firm new‑crop size and quality signals.
• Currency: The weaker Turkish lira and relatively stable Indian rupee versus the euro continue to underpin competitive export offers, even as nominal origin prices seem sticky.
• Quality: No widespread quality alerts for ochratoxin or pesticide residues have surfaced in the last few days, and buyers continue to prioritize certified lots from established packers, especially in Turkey.

Short Weather Outlook (next 3–5 days)

• Turkey (Aegean raisin belt): Forecasts point to warm, mostly dry conditions with only isolated light showers, broadly favorable for pre‑harvest vineyard operations and early drying preparation.
• India (Maharashtra/Karnataka): Monsoon rains remain near normal; scattered showers are expected but without strong systems targeting core raisin districts in the very near term.
• China (Xinjiang): Hot, dry weather dominates, with large diurnal temperature ranges that are typically positive for sugar accumulation and raisin drying.
• Chile (Central Valley): It is winter in Chile; current cool and generally dry conditions are more relevant for vine dormancy than for the completed 2026 raisin crop.
• Afghanistan (Northern raisin areas): Seasonally dry, hot conditions persist with no major storm systems expected in the next few days, supporting ongoing drying and storage.

Market & Trading Outlook

• Price bias (3–4 weeks): Slightly bearish for standard brown and sultana grades from IN, CN, CL and AF as buyers stay patient and new‑crop Turkish offers edge closer.
• Premiums: High‑quality Turkish and organic product likely to retain a premium but may see small spot discounts where sellers need liquidity.
• Demand: Retail and bakery demand in the EU is stable but not aggressively rebuilding inventories; Ramadan 2027‑related buying is still distant, limiting near‑term upside.

Strategy Pointers

• Food‑grade buyers: Consider scaling in small volumes on price dips, prioritizing Turkey and India for core coverage while keeping some flexibility to switch to Chinese or Afghan origin if discounts widen.
• Feed and industrial users: Take advantage of softer Afghanistan‑origin and Indian feed‑grade prices to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026, as downside from here appears limited versus historical discounts to food grades.
• Producers and packers: Avoid over‑committing forward at current levels; monitor early new‑crop quality and government policy in Turkey closely before setting aggressive minimum prices.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• AF (Afghanistan origin, EU FCA): Around 1.70–1.80 EUR/kg for feed‑grade brown; tone mildly weak as buyers push for small further discounts.
• CL (Chile origin, EU FCA): Around 2.20–2.30 EUR/kg for flame jumbo; slightly soft with room for negotiation on volume deals.
• CN (China origin, EU FCA): Around 1.95–2.05 EUR/kg for standard sultanas; short‑term direction flat to slightly down.
• IN (India origin, FOB): Around 1.70–1.85 EUR/kg for brown/black AA and about 2.20–2.30 EUR/kg for golden AA; likely to trade sideways with a modest downside bias if global buyers remain cautious.
• TR (Turkey origin, FOB/FCA): Around 2.00–2.10 EUR/kg for standard sultanas at origin and 2.50–2.70 EUR/kg in EU warehouses depending on grade; expected broadly stable over the next three days.