Raisin Prices Steady as Monsoon Rains Test Indian Vineyards, Turkish Sultanas Hold Range

Raisin prices in both Turkey and India are broadly stable in early August, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves and no major supply shock in key origins. Turkish sultana offers from Malatya are flat, while Indian grades around New Delhi show a gentle firming bias, helped by steady export interest and seasonally strong domestic demand. Weather risks are present but not yet price‑changing. Global trade continues to lean on Turkey as a core supplier of seedless raisins to Europe, while Maharashtra remains India’s main raisin hub for regional and some export flows. Recent monsoon activity in western India has brought abundant rain to parts of Maharashtra, but so far without clear evidence of large‑scale crop damage in major grape belts. In Turkey, typical hot, dry August weather is supporting drying conditions in Aegean and eastern production areas, with no fresh reports of disruptive extremes. Against this backdrop, near‑term price direction looks sideways to mildly firmer for higher‑quality grades.

Prices

All prices converted to approximate EUR using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR for comparability.

Turkish raisins retain a cost advantage into Europe thanks to scale and logistics, with Türkiye still a leading supplier of dried grapes into EU markets. Indian export‑quality raisins are pricing modestly above standard Turkish sultanas but remain competitive in niche and regional segments.

Supply & Demand

Türkiye continues to dominate global raisin exports, particularly to the EU, supported by strong comparative advantage in dried grapes and established logistics through Aegean ports. Exporters report that previous seasons’ lower Turkish volumes were offset by higher unit values, underlining tight but well‑cleared markets. For 2026, there are no fresh indications of a major supply shortfall; trade flows appear orderly, and warehouse carry‑in helps cap prices.

In India, Maharashtra remains the core raisin belt, led by districts such as Nashik, Sangli and Tasgaon, which specialize in raisin‑type grapes. Domestic snack and bakery demand is firm, and smaller exporters are actively seeking EU opportunities alongside spices and other dry fruits. However, anecdotal feedback from exporters indicates that closing deals remains slow despite generally healthy global demand for Indian agri products.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, TR)

In western India, the 2026 monsoon has been active, with heavy rainfall episodes in parts of Maharashtra, including the Western Ghats. While high rainfall can replenish reservoirs and support irrigation, persistent wet conditions and high humidity around ripening and drying can raise disease pressure and complicate on‑farm raisin drying if they persist into the post‑monsoon period. No credible official reports in the last three days signal large‑scale grape or raisin crop losses, so weather is a watch factor rather than a realized shock.

In Türkiye, available August 2026 commentary focuses mainly on tourism and general weather patterns, which point to seasonally hot, dry conditions typical for late summer. Such weather is usually favourable for sun‑drying of seedless grapes into sultanas, provided there are no heat extremes causing berry scorching. With no new alerts on frost, hail or anomalous rainfall in raisin regions, market participants currently assume near‑normal crop progression.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stable fundamentals in Türkiye: Recent academic work confirms Türkiye’s entrenched competitiveness in the EU dried grape market, implying continued strong presence and disciplined export strategy. This underpins relatively narrow price bands for mainstream sultanas.
• Currency and macro factors: Exchange‑rate and inflation dynamics in Türkiye have historically influenced export volumes and pricing strategies. With agricultural exports a key foreign‑exchange earner, policy remains supportive of maintaining flows rather than restricting shipments.
• Indian production base: India channels roughly one‑fifth of its grape crop into raisins, with Maharashtra as the principal processing state. Capacity exists to flex between table and raisin use depending on price signals, which helps dampen extreme price spikes.
• Logistics and buyer behaviour: Exporter feedback from India suggests that, across agri products, converting inquiries into firm raisin orders remains challenging in 2026, pointing to cautious overseas buyers and intense competition from Turkey and Chile.

3‑Day Price Outlook & Trading Guidance

Directional outlook (next 3 days, in EUR terms):

• Turkey – Malatya sultanas (FOB/CIF): Sideways; narrow band trading as export pipelines are well‑supplied and weather is benign.
• India – New Delhi raisins (FOB/FCA): Steady to slightly firmer for golden and black AA grades on healthy domestic demand; feed grades flat.

Trading suggestions:

• Buyers in Europe/MENA: Use current Turkish stability to extend coverage modestly into Q4 at the lower end of recent ranges, especially for type 9/10 sultanas, while monitoring any late‑season weather headlines.
• Indian exporters: Consider selective forward sales in golden and black AA grades where margins over domestic channels are clear, but avoid heavy under‑pricing versus Turkish offers into the EU.
• Feed and industrial users: Lock in bird‑feed and lower grades from India while spreads to food‑grade material remain wide; upside risk here is limited in the very short term.

Overall, with no new supply shock or acute logistics issues in the last few days, raisin markets in both Turkey and India are likely to hold current price ranges through the immediate 3‑day window, with only incremental firming risk on premium Indian grades if monsoon‑related concerns intensify later in August.