Raisin Market Steady as Indian Weather Risk Builds on the Horizon

Raisin prices are currently stable in key export and import hubs, but emerging weather-related risks in India’s broader agricultural belt signal that cost pressure could reappear later in the season. For now, buyers enjoy a narrow and mostly sideways trading range, yet they should not assume today’s calm will extend into the 2026/27 season. The market is balanced by comfortable short‑term availability and only modest demand growth from snack, bakery and feed sectors. However, India’s weak monsoon onset in major perennial crop districts underlines how quickly supply sentiment could change if similar patterns extend into grape‑growing areas. In this context, current flat prices offer a window for forward cover, especially for premium grades where quality differentials tend to widen once weather volatility hits.

Prices

Recent offer indications in late July 2026 show a broadly stable price environment across origin and destination points, with no abrupt week‑on‑week moves. Standard Chinese sultanas RTU type 9 ex Hamburg (FCA) are indicated around EUR 2.11/kg, essentially unchanged over the month. Indian trade offers from New Delhi cluster between EUR 1.90–2.65/kg for food‑grade raisins depending on colour, with bird‑feed grade product near EUR 1.03/kg FOB and also flat.

Turkish sultanas (types 8–10) remain the high‑priced benchmark, broadly around EUR 2.30–2.95/kg FOB Malatya, with organic lots above EUR 3.00/kg. Chilean flame jumbo shipments into Northwest Europe and African feed‑grade raisins into the Netherlands show unchanged offers at roughly mid‑EUR 2s and just under EUR 2.00/kg FCA, respectively. The very limited intra‑month movement points to neither acute shortage nor demand shock at present.

Supply & Demand

Physical availability for the current marketing window is adequate, supported by steady flows from Turkey, China and India and by stable demand from bakery, confectionery and muesli manufacturers. Feed‑grade raisins are also well supplied, reflected in the flat pricing of Indian Malayar bird‑feed material and African brown feed offers. Buyers are able to switch origins tactically, which helps cap any localised price flare‑ups.

On the demand side, consumption growth remains modest but positive, with healthy‑snacking trends supporting baseline usage while inflation‑linked consumer downtrading tempers any sharp acceleration. Food manufacturers continue to focus on cost optimisation and recipe flexibility, limiting their willingness to pay significant premiums for origin or colour unless required for branding. This behaviour contributes to the current narrow price spread between standard food‑grade and premium AA grades, although the spread could widen again if weather or logistics shocks hit any major origin.

Fundamentals & Weather Risk

Weather‑related risk is re‑emerging in India’s perennial crop sector, with weak 2026 monsoon rainfall already reported in key districts such as Chikmagalur, Kodagu, Hassan and Wayanad. These areas are primarily known for coffee, not raisins, but their rainfall shortfalls highlight the broader vulnerability of plantation and horticultural crops to a delayed or erratic monsoon in 2026–27. Growers there are already considering increased irrigation use and fear flower and fruit drop if dryness persists into July.

For the raisin complex, this matters because India is a relevant supplier of value and mid‑range grades, and similar rainfall deficits in grape‑growing belts later in the season could reduce fresh grape yields, cluster uniformity and ultimately raisin output. The current estimate of a roughly 4% decline in India’s 2026–27 coffee crop emphasises how quickly expectations can shift once early‑season rains disappoint. While there is no confirmed parallel estimate yet for raisins, risk premia may begin to surface if monsoon recovery in broader horticultural regions remains uncertain.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the coming weeks, the base case is for a continued sideways price pattern with a mild upward bias in premium and colour‑sensitive segments. Much depends on how India’s monsoon evolves across all key agricultural states and whether any heatwaves or unseasonal rains affect grape and drying stages later in 2026. Logistical conditions and freight rates currently support stable CIF pricing into Europe, but this could tighten if cross‑commodity weather concerns spill over into broader supply‑chain risk premia.

• Food manufacturers: Use the current stability to extend coverage by one cycle for golden and black AA grades, especially from India, where FCA prices have started to edge higher.
• Importers/packers: Diversify origin mix between Turkey, China and India to hedge against any India‑specific monsoon risk emerging in Q4 2026.
• Feed sector buyers: Maintain hand‑to‑mouth purchasing; ample feed‑grade availability and flat prices argue against aggressive forward buying for now.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR‑based)

• Europe (Hamburg/Dordrecht, Chinese & Chilean raisins): Sideways; quotes expected to hold within current ranges.
• India (New Delhi, FCA/FOB): Slightly firmer tone for food‑grade AA; feed‑grade Malayar to remain flat.
• Turkey (Malatya, FOB/CIF): Stable to marginally firm, with organic and higher‑type sultanas retaining a premium but no sharp moves anticipated.