Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Turkish Sultanas Tighten and Indian Supply Normalises

Raisin prices across key origins are broadly steady to slightly firmer, with Turkish and Chinese sultanas maintaining a premium and Indian grades edging up on the back of tight but improving domestic supply. No major fresh weather shocks have emerged in the last few days, keeping a generally tight global balance in place. Physical markets remain price-driven rather than news-driven this week. Turkish sultanas continue to set the tone for premium bakery and snack demand, while China and India compete increasingly on price-sensitive segments. Afghanistan and Chile stay relevant in feed and bulk export flows, but without clear near-term price direction changes. Weather in all key origins (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR) is seasonally warm and mostly benign for vines at this stage, so traders are focused on currency moves and logistics rather than production scares. Overall, buyers face limited downside but also no immediate catalyst for a sharp breakout.

Prices

Indicative spot and near‑term prices (converted to EUR at ~1 EUR = 1.10 USD):

Overall, most traded grades have moved less than 1% over the last week, underlining a stable but firm market as global supplies remain tight compared with pre‑2025 seasons. Earlier industry outlooks had already pointed to constrained raisin and sultana availability into 2026 after frost damage in Türkiye and lower planted area in Chile, supporting today’s elevated price base.

Supply & Demand Drivers

India (IN)

India is entering the later part of the monsoon season, with recent rains close to seasonal norms across major agricultural belts. Monsoon commentary suggests some concern about potential rainfall deficits in August–September linked to El Niño, but there have been no specific reports of damage to raisin grape belts so far.

Industry data show India’s raisin production in 2025/26 is projected lower versus 2024/25, but still substantial, keeping the country an important supplier to price‑sensitive markets. Domestic demand from bakery and confectionery remains firm, and export interest into the Middle East and South Asia is steady, helping to underpin current FOB levels.

Türkiye (TR)

Türkiye remains the benchmark origin for sultanas. Recent months’ industry updates emphasised that the 2025 Turkish crop had suffered heavy frost damage, sharply reducing carry‑over for 2026 and tightening exportable supply. While no new weather events were reported in the last three days, the earlier damage leaves exporters cautious in offering large forward volumes, keeping prices firm.

Export demand from Europe is seasonally moderate but consistent, especially for higher‑quality and organic grades, which show a clear price premium. China has taken share in some European retail segments on price, but many buyers still prefer Turkish origin for quality and supply‑chain familiarity, limiting any downside in Turkish quotations.

China (CN)

China’s Xinjiang region continues to be a major driver of incremental world supply, with industry forecasts pointing to a strong 2025/26 crop and rising exports. No acute weather problems have been flagged in the last few days, and exporters are actively competing into Europe with aggressive pricing, particularly for standard sultanas.

However, some European buyers remain selective due to concerns over labour and sustainability practices, which caps the share China can take from Türkiye despite a price advantage. This keeps Chinese material as the main cap on further upside, rather than a trigger for broad‑based price declines.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s raisin sector is structurally smaller than a decade ago as area planted to table grapes has been cut back, leading to a gradual decline in raisin output. USDA projections for 2025/26 show production around 62,000–63,000 tonnes, slightly below earlier years.

No noteworthy new weather incidents are reported this week. With El Niño impacts easing and water availability improved versus prior drought years, current vines are in stable condition, but structural acreage decline limits any significant boost to export availability. Chile therefore supports the firm global floor without strongly moving spot prices on its own.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan is a smaller but important origin for feed‑grade and mid‑quality raisins. Industry statistics indicate Afghan raisin production could reach around 20,000 tonnes in 2025/26, up from roughly 12,000 tonnes in 2024/25, signalling recovery after earlier disruptions.

There are no major new weather‑related headlines, but ongoing logistical and financial constraints continue to limit how much of this crop can be reliably exported. As a result, Afghan origin in Europe trades largely as a niche, feed‑oriented stream and has limited impact on premium human‑consumption grades.

Fundamentals & Weather Snapshot

• Global balance: International dried fruit industry data for 2025/26 show world raisin production down by nearly 14% versus 2024/25, led by sharp cuts in Türkiye, India and Iran. This underpins the current firm price environment.
• Stocks: Ending stocks are projected to fall from about 154,000 tonnes in 2024/25 to 137,000 tonnes in 2025/26, keeping the stocks‑to‑use ratio tight and limiting downside potential.
• Weather – next 3 days: Short‑range forecasts show seasonally hot, mostly dry conditions in western Türkiye, Xinjiang (China), Chile’s central valleys, and Afghan raisin belts, with only scattered monsoon showers in Indian vineyards. No severe heatwaves or storms specifically threatening raisin vines are indicated in the very near term.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (food industry, packers): Consider covering Q4 2026 and early 2027 needs on price dips, especially for Turkish and Indian grades, as global stocks are low and upside risk outweighs downside. Stagger purchases to manage FX and freight volatility.
• Importers / traders (EU, MENA): Maintain a diversified origin book—use Chinese and Afghan material to sharpen blended cost but keep Turkish and Indian supply for core quality‑sensitive contracts. Avoid aggressive short positions given tight fundamentals.
• Producers (IN, TR, CN, CL, AF): With no immediate weather shock, gradual, disciplined selling is advisable. Holding too much in expectation of a sharp rally is risky given China’s competitive offers, but there is also little reason to discount aggressively.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction

• India (IN): FOB New Delhi prices for Malayar feed and AA grades expected to remain steady to slightly firm in EUR terms as monsoon risk is monitored but current demand holds.
• Türkiye (TR): Sultana prices likely to stay firm/sideways, supported by tight stocks and cautious exporter selling, with only marginal FX‑driven fluctuations in EUR.
• China (CN): Sultanas ex‑EU warehouses expected to trade stable, as strong global supply from China offsets tightness elsewhere.
• Chile (CL): Flame jumbo raisins into Europe to stay range‑bound, with no immediate weather or crop news to shift export offers.
• Afghanistan (AF): Feed‑grade raisins in Europe likely to remain stable, with logistics rather than fundamentals driving any small, localised moves.