Turkish Raisins Face Pressure: Big New Crop, Weak Prices, Weather Risk

Turkish raisins are heading into the new season with high stocks, a very large crop expectation and mounting pressure on prices, while farmers wait for the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to set crucial support levels. The market enters harvest with an estimated 20,000 tons of raisins still in stock and a new crop projection around 320,000 tons, of which roughly 280,000 tons are expected to be exported. Export volumes have risen thanks to lower offer prices, but margins for exporters remain thin and sales are mainly made to defend long-term customer relationships. At the same time, many packers report that on-farm availability of old crop is tight, and a storm and rain warning this week underlines the weather risk just before harvest. Against this backdrop, the forthcoming TMO intervention price will be the key determinant of how far free-market levels can fall.

Prices

Old-crop Turkish sultana prices have already softened from earlier in the season as sellers discount to move remaining volumes and keep export channels active. Exporters report that current levels allow only limited profitability, highlighting that recent price cuts are demand-driven rather than cost-based. The market consensus is that new-season prices will open significantly below today's values, given the combination of residual stocks and a large incoming crop.

Spot offers on 29 July 2026 indicate Turkish conventional sultanas around EUR 2.13–2.31/kg CIF/FOB for mainstream grades, with organic product near EUR 3.10/kg. Some grades have already seen clear reductions: Turkish type 8 sultanas, grade A, have eased from about EUR 2.85/kg to around EUR 2.20/kg FOB within the month, signalling growing pressure ahead of harvest. Competing origins remain broadly stable, with Chinese standard sultanas near EUR 2.11–2.20/kg FCA in Europe and Indian food-grade raisins mostly between EUR 1.90–2.65/kg FCA/FOB.

Supply & Demand

End-of-season Turkish stocks are estimated at around 20,000 tons, a moderate carry-over in absolute terms but significant when combined with a very large new-crop expectation near 320,000 tons. Exporters expect to ship roughly 280,000 tons in the upcoming season, implying a strong export programme will be needed to absorb supply without excessive downward pressure on farm-gate prices. Yet many domestic businesses report that old-crop on-farm stocks are already tight and difficult to source, suggesting that much of the residual volume is now in commercial hands.

Despite weak prices, export demand has improved as buyers take advantage of competitive Turkish offers compared with other origins. However, these sales are primarily defensive, aiming to avoid losing long-standing customers rather than expanding margins. The combination of aggressive pricing, tight exporter profitability and sizeable forward supply creates an environment where price sensitivity is high and any shock to export flows or quality could quickly translate into volatility.

Fundamentals

The fundamental driver for the coming season is the large Turkish crop expectation around 320,000 tons, clearly above a balanced level relative to historic export demand. With approximately 280,000 tons targeted for exports, Turkey will remain the dominant supplier to global sultana markets. This supply overhang is the main reason why market participants widely expect new-season opening prices to be significantly lower than current spot levels.

Farmers are dissatisfied with the prospect of lower prices and are looking to the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to provide price support. The TMO's purchase price announcement will effectively set a floor for the domestic market and will strongly influence how aggressively traders can discount export offers. Until that announcement is made, both growers and exporters are reluctant to commit fully to forward contracts, creating a period of uncertainty but also potential opportunity for flexible buyers.

Weather & Crop Outlook

The coming days in the main Turkish raisin region (e.g. Manisa) are forecast to be hot, dry and windy, with daytime highs around 35–36°C and no significant rainfall expected. These conditions are broadly favourable for ripening and drying but increase the risk of heat stress for field labour and may accelerate harvest timing in some vineyards. Official warnings this week of possible storms and heavy rain have therefore raised concern, as even short wet spells during harvest can hurt berry quality.

Farmers are urged to take precautions to protect grapes on the vine and drying racks in case of sudden rain or hail. Given the already large crop expectation, localized weather damage is unlikely to change the overall volume picture materially, but it could generate quality differentiation between early- and late-harvested parcels. This would further widen price spreads between high-grade export-quality raisins and lower-grade material destined for feed or industrial uses.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 2–4 weeks): Downward bias for Turkish raisin prices as harvest accelerates and sellers seek liquidity, especially before the TMO price is confirmed. Buyers can expect additional discounting on standard grades if weather remains benign.
• Medium term (Q4 2026): Price stabilization will depend heavily on TMO intervention levels and actual export drawdown. A sufficiently high TMO purchase price would support farm-gate values and may lift export offers from current lows; a weaker-than-expected level would open the door to further declines.
• Competition between origins: Turkey currently offers very competitive pricing versus China, India and Chile, particularly in mainstream sultana grades. This should keep Turkish material as the first choice for European buyers, while alternative origins mainly set an upper bound on price recovery.

Strategy Tips for Market Participants

• Industrial buyers / packers: Consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 on weakness during harvest, focusing on high-quality lots that may tighten later if weather problems hit selected vineyards.
• Importers / traders: Maintain close watch on TMO price announcements and adjust forward offers promptly; hedge the risk of further downside by keeping inventories lean until policy clarity improves.
• Producers / cooperatives: Evaluate storage and financing options in case TMO support allows for delayed selling, but remain realistic about the impact of a 320,000-ton crop on achievable price levels.

3-Day Regional Price Indication

• Turkey (Malatya / Manisa, export-grade sultanas): Prices seen mildly softer, with buyers pushing for small discounts as harvest starts and weather risk remains in focus.
• EU ports (Hamburg, Dordrecht): FCA prices for Turkish and Chinese raisins expected to track Turkish offshore moves, with slight downside as new-crop offers emerge.
• India (New Delhi): Local raisin prices likely to remain broadly stable in the very short term, with only limited spill-over from Turkish new-crop pressure this week.