Turkish Sultana Raisins Edge Softer as New Crop Drying Faces Weather Noise

Turkish sultana raisin prices are broadly steady to slightly softer this week, with grade 9 conventional FOB offers in Malatya easing while some finer counts tick up. Weather-related drying risks around Malatya are adding a mild risk premium but have not yet triggered a broad price spike. Competitive Chinese and Indian raisins are capping upside for Turkish exporters in the short term. New-crop drying activity in eastern and central Turkey is accelerating, but recent heavy showers around Malatya have reminded the market of quality risks during the open-air drying phase, similar to what kayısı (apricot) growers are facing on sergens in the region. Exporters report a more active start to the season than last year’s frost-hit campaign, yet global fundamentals point to a smaller 2025/26 world raisin/sultana supply, including a notable cut in Türkiye’s seedless dried grape output. For now, the price tone is mildly weak, but the balance could flip quickly if further rains hit drying areas.

Prices

All prices converted roughly to EUR at 1 EUR = 1.10 USD where relevant; values are indicative.

Turkish CIF-type 9 RTU levels into import markets are broadly flat week-on-week, while domestic FOB Malatya offers for conventional type 8–9 have eased by roughly 2–3% as sellers test demand. Organic premiums remain wide but static.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, Türkiye is entering the new seedless grape drying season with more normal vineyard conditions after last year’s frost-related losses, particularly in Malatya and other eastern fruit regions. Officials recently highlighted that 2026 fruit harvests are recovering after prior weather damage, supporting a larger overall crop base. However, new industry forecasts indicate that Türkiye’s 2025/26 raisin and sultana production may still fall well below 2024/25, tightening exportable surplus versus past years.

Globally, world raisin and sultana supply is projected to decline year-on-year, with sizeable cuts not only in Türkiye but also in India and Iran, partly offset by bigger crops in China and South Africa. This underpins medium-term support for Turkish prices despite current local softness, especially in EU markets where Turkish sultanas are a key ingredient in bakery and cereal mixes. Chinese product continues to compete aggressively on price, particularly in standard RTU grades delivered into Northern Europe.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (TR)

In the Malatya region, recent days have brought intense showers and localised flooding. News coverage shows heavy rain hitting open-air drying fruits, with producers racing to cover sergens and protect product quality. Although these reports focus on apricots, the same weather pattern increases moisture-related risk for drying grapes and could raise the share of downgraded or darkened sultanas if wet spells repeat.

Looking ahead, the 3‑day forecast for Malatya points to warm late‑summer conditions with occasional clouds and only low-to-moderate chances of further showers, which should allow drying to continue, but producers remain cautious after the mid‑August downpours. Any renewed sequence of rains during the critical drying window would quickly translate into tighter availability of higher grades and firmer FOB indications.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tighter global balance: World raisin/sultana total supply for 2025/26 is forecast to fall by more than 10% versus 2024/25, with Türkiye’s supply down sharply as carry‑in stocks shrink and production normalises lower after past bumper crops.
• Recovery from frost, but weather noise: After last year’s frost damage in Malatya’s fruit sector, authorities emphasize a more "abundant" 2026 harvest season. However, the mid‑August storm episodes show that post‑harvest weather can still disrupt drying and quality.
• Competing origins: China’s expected jump in raisin production and competitive pricing is restraining Turkish exporters’ ability to raise offers sharply into the EU, while India provides alternative supplies of golden and Malayar raisins at attractive price points for feed and industrial use.
• Demand side: Consumer demand in Europe remains steady but price-sensitive, with some buyers prepared to switch to lower-priced origins or grades if Turkish premiums widen further. No major demand shock has emerged in the last few days.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Short-term bias: Slightly bearish for standard Turkish type 8–9 FOB Malatya, given the small week-on-week price reductions and absence of fresh weather damage headlines since the mid‑August storms. Consolidation around current levels is likely unless new rain hits drying areas.
• For buyers: Consider layering in coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs at current Turkish price levels, particularly for higher grades and organic, while keeping some flexibility to switch to Chinese RTU product for more price-sensitive applications.
• For sellers: Maintain disciplined offers on premium grades (type 10, organic), where global tightening is more likely to be felt, but remain prepared to negotiate modest discounts on standard type 8–9 cargoes to secure early-season contracts.
• Key watchpoints: Monitor Malatya’s short-term weather closely and track early export sales from the Aegean region; any confirmation of stronger-than-expected demand or renewed rain-related damage would quickly support Turkish FOB indications.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR, TR-focused)

• Malatya FOB TR sultanas type 8–9: Stable to slightly softer; intra-day offers likely to move within ±1–2% of current EUR/kg indications.
• Malatya FOB TR sultanas type 10 & organic: Broadly stable with mild upward bias if buyers step in to secure quality after recent rains.
• EU inland positions (FCA, CZ/NL) for Turkish sultanas: Largely steady; any moves should mainly reflect FX and freight adjustments rather than origin price shifts over the next three days.